I'm 0/16 AIPF for October

[Nielsio]

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They obviously won't mind if I take them with me.

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don't want to minimize your pain, but you should know that at least for today you are +EV in funny, because I almost sent my afternoon tea through my nose when reading this

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[holdme]

hey guys is ftp rigged

[highsteptd]

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Been AIPF 16 times for full stacks in October, and haven't won one yet. Matchups have been:

AA < KK
AA < TT
AA < 88
KK < AK x4
KK < KJo
QQ < JJ x2
QQ < TT
AK < KK x3
AK < QQ x 2

Maybe the virgin I sacrificed to Full Tilt recently wasn't actually a virgin or something, because the poker gods sure are pissed.

If someone can tell me the odds of this happening I will videotape myself enthusiastically slitting my wrists and post it on the interwebs.

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I was bored.

It is ~24,450-1

If you knock out the last two lines though, it is ~536,200-1, since you were behind in those.

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The last lines dont diminish the chance, they actually make it go even higher, even if he was a dog in those, he stood a chance to win once, and the fact that he didnt, wether a fav or a dog to win makes it more unprobable.

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pls tell me you're leveling

[RAHZero]

AA < KK - Probability = 0.18054
AA < TT - 0.19251
AA < 88 - 0.19538
KK < AK x4 - 0.31116 each
KK < KJo - 0.09135
QQ < JJ x2 - 0.18034 each
QQ < TT - 0.18433
AK < KK x3 - 0.68884 each
AK < QQ x 2 - 0.56056 each

Total probability = 0.00000007464 which is about 1 in 13,400,000.

[RAHZero]

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Been AIPF 16 times for full stacks in October, and haven't won one yet. Matchups have been:

AA < KK
AA < TT
AA < 88
KK < AK x4
KK < KJo
QQ < JJ x2
QQ < TT
AK < KK x3
AK < QQ x 2

Maybe the virgin I sacrificed to Full Tilt recently wasn't actually a virgin or something, because the poker gods sure are pissed.

If someone can tell me the odds of this happening I will videotape myself enthusiastically slitting my wrists and post it on the interwebs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was bored.

It is ~24,450-1

If you knock out the last two lines though, it is ~536,200-1, since you were behind in those.

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The last lines dont diminish the chance, they actually make it go even higher, even if he was a dog in those, he stood a chance to win once, and the fact that he didnt, wether a fav or a dog to win makes it more unprobable.

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pls tell me you're leveling

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Uh, do you understand the laws of probability?

[goofyballer]

Ballparking the equities:

overpair < smaller pair 6 times = 0.19^6
* KK < AK 4 times = 0.3^4
* KK < KJ = 0.08
* AK < KK 3 times = 0.7^3
* AK < QQ 2 times = 0.55^2

= 1 / 316,143,232.

EDIT: lol, using RAH's numbers which aren't even that diff from mine I get 1 / 50,368,867 which is still 4x more than his figure of 13.4 mil. I hate decimals.

EDIT 2: Serious lol, every single time I multiply up RAH's numbers I get different answers. I fail at Windows Calculator.

Copying and pasting this:

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.18054 * .19251 * .19538 * .31116 * .31116 * .31116 * .31116 * .09135 * .18034 * .18034 * .18433 * .68884 * .56056

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into Calculator gets me .00000001346 which is 1 in 74,294,205.

My #s are

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.19 * .19 * .19 * .19 * .19 * .19 * .3 * .3 * .3 * .3 * .08 * .7 * .7 * .7 * .55 * .55

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Which are very close approximations to RAH's #s but still get 0.00000000316, which is 1 in 316,143,232. So, I guess the lesson is that using approximations when multiplying lots of decimals together will radically affect results?

Also, since the equities change by small percents (which, as seen above, will affect the final number drastically) depending on suits, we need more details OP. gogogo!

EDIT 3: Wait lol I forgot three numbers of RAH's

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.18054 * .19251 * .19538 * .31116 * .31116 * .31116 * .31116 * .09135 * .18034 * .18034 * .18433 * .68884 * .68884 * .68884 * .56056 * .56056

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= 1 in 279,299,477

[Mike Kelley]

pointer math is awesome.

[goofyballer]

POINTER MATH USES INTEGERS AND IS THUS WAY COOLER THAN THIS [censored]

[Ender Wiggin]

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Been AIPF 16 times for full stacks in October, and haven't won one yet. Matchups have been:

AA < KK
AA < TT
AA < 88
KK < AK x4
KK < KJo
QQ < JJ x2
QQ < TT
AK < KK x3
AK < QQ x 2

Maybe the virgin I sacrificed to Full Tilt recently wasn't actually a virgin or something, because the poker gods sure are pissed.

If someone can tell me the odds of this happening I will videotape myself enthusiastically slitting my wrists and post it on the interwebs.

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The odds of this happening are 100%, DUCY?

[Mike Kelley]

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POINTER MATH USES INTEGERS AND IS THUS WAY COOLER THAN THIS [censored]

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What is pointer math?