#1
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Basic River Value Question
Hero is Cutoff with AKs.
UTG (55/5 passive postflop) limps, Hero raises, Button (60/20 typical postflop) calls, UTG calls. Three players and 7.5 SB to the flop. Flop is 322 2-suited none for me. I bet and both call. 5.25 BB to the turn. Turn is off 7. I bet and only UTG calls. 7.25 BB to the river. River is a third 2. UTG checks and Hero ??? |
#2
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Re: Basic River Value Question
I bet this one, but his WTSD could convince me otherwise.
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#3
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Re: Basic River Value Question
If his WTSD isn't very low I think this is a value bet.
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#4
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Re: Basic River Value Question
I bet it. So many aces he can have and even kings compared to pairs.
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#5
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Re: Basic River Value Question
[ QUOTE ]
If his WTSD isn't very low I think this is a value bet. [/ QUOTE ] yea this is definitely the right idea, do u have WTSD for us? |
#6
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Re: Basic River Value Question
seems like a good time to stove it up...
assuming he makes it to the river with pretty much his whole range, I removed monsters (figure even this player will not player a monster this passive), and removed anything less than KT or so... Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 218 games 0.005 secs 43,600 games/sec Board: 3s 2c 2d 2h 7h Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 44.037% 44.04% 00.00% 96 0.00 { AcKc } Hand 1: 55.963% 55.96% 00.00% 122 0.00 { 99-88, 66-44, ATs-A3s, KJs+, K7s, K3s, Q7s, Q3s, J7s, J3s, T7s, 97s, 87s, 75s+, ATo-A3o, KJo+, K7o, Q7o, J7o, T7o, 87o } --- so.... looks like its close (if he pays off any ace and most kings), but probably a check behind |
#7
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Re: Basic River Value Question
if he doesnt pay off with Kx, its a really easy check
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#8
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Re: Basic River Value Question
[ QUOTE ]
seems like a good time to stove it up... assuming he makes it to the river with pretty much his whole range, I removed monsters (figure even this player will not player a monster this passive), and removed anything less than KT or so... Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 218 games 0.005 secs 43,600 games/sec Board: 3s 2c 2d 2h 7h Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 44.037% 44.04% 00.00% 96 0.00 { AcKc } Hand 1: 55.963% 55.96% 00.00% 122 0.00 { 99-88, 66-44, ATs-A3s, KJs+, K7s, K3s, Q7s, Q3s, J7s, J3s, T7s, 97s, 87s, 75s+, ATo-A3o, KJo+, K7o, Q7o, J7o, T7o, 87o } --- so.... looks like its close (if he pays off any ace and most kings), but probably a check behind [/ QUOTE ] I give more A high than to pairs based on how he played this. I also think AJ and AQ are possible. |
#9
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Re: Basic River Value Question
easy check. Passive postflop and low PFR - he has you beat more often than not (when he pays)
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#10
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Re: Basic River Value Question
if he calls with a bunch of weaker ace-his and maybe something like KQ along with the hands that beat you like the A7 crap and small pps, then yeah. i think it's a thin value bet. but not knowing his range (or not being able to weigh it) and the value of a bet here, i play it safe and check.
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