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#11
11-16-2007, 03:37 PM
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Re: Trips deep vs solid tag, ugh
Tough hand but I think its a fold on the river too.
A 22/17 *should* be raising all PPs and Ace face preflop. So that leads me to think hes got a suited connector with 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]s That would explain the call on the flop (set just might play it more aggressively on the flush draw possibility), bet on turn. Hes vbetting river hoping exactly you have AJ-AK... 
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#13
11-16-2007, 03:51 PM
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Re: Trips deep vs solid tag, ugh
What makes turn c/c standard? My impulse is to bet out.
FWIW, I'd fold as played. One thing that makes it hard IMO is the turn check. It plants the seed of weakness in his head, which, I suppose, is why you checked in the first place. But now that you've got him thinking that way, he's pretty much forced to bet the river, regardless of his holding. So, I don't know, he's bluffing here sometimes, but as others have stated, based on combos of a reasonable range that made it to the turn, it's prolly not often enough to call. My take on his range: 54s, 89s, Axs, 66, 77, 76s, clubs. I'm not sure to what extent, but we have to discount 66/77/76s due to flop call and Axs due to trn+riv bets, right? I guess it could be close. Also, this deep, how much stock do you place in his preflop action to narrow his range?
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#14
11-16-2007, 03:52 PM
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Re: Trips deep vs solid tag, ugh
i think you need some history/reads to call this. But right now you have no reason to think he's bluffing and i don't think he's valuebetting worse often enough to call.
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#16
11-16-2007, 04:05 PM
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Re: Trips deep vs solid tag, ugh
agreed
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#17
11-16-2007, 04:23 PM
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Re: Trips deep vs solid tag, ugh
[ QUOTE ]
People agree that turn c/c is right correct? This deep I see no reason to bet this turn. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not arguing at all, I'm uncomfortable playing this deep and obviously over my head, but if you would, I'd like to hear your reasoning. By the turn you're less than 2psb from being in, and considering the way the pot got bloated, it shouldn't really play as deep as it seems, right? I know it's not exactly the same, but would you be as hesitant if it were simply a raised $3/$6 pot w/ 100bb stacks?
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#18
11-16-2007, 04:30 PM
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Re: Trips deep vs solid tag, ugh
Well if he's floating we want him to make his bluff, if he has a flush we don't want to bet ourselves off our hand. Betting again kind of overrepps our hand. Only hand we're giving a free card too is a straight draw.
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#19
11-16-2007, 04:47 PM
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Re: Trips deep vs solid tag, ugh
[ QUOTE ]
...Betting again kind of overrepps our hand... [/ QUOTE ] I don't mean to beat it to death, but I guess what I'm worried about is that you may have underrepped your hand and invited this river bet. Thus, making it tougher to fold your likely loser. Also, being out of position sucks.
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