11 NL Party folding an overpair

[reutel]

BB went all in with TPMK before, so I would have called him for sure. I hadn't seen UTG+1 go all-in before. Any comments on my line?

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t30/t60
7 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t3000
UTG+1: t2435
Hero: t3345
CO: t1760
Button: t1620
SB: t4630
BB: t3210

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls t60 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t90)</font>, UTG+1 calls t60 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t150)</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to t300</font>, 3 folds, BB calls t240 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t510)</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls t240 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t750)</font>.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t990, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB is all-in t2910</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 calls all-in t2135</font>, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: t775 returned to BB.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t5260, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: t5260)


River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t5260, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: t5260)


Results:
Final pot: t5260
<font color="#ffffff">BB balance 6035 bet 3210 collected 6035 net 2825 Jd Ah </font>
<font color="#ffffff">UTG+1 balance 0 lost 2435 Kh Js </font>

[mmorpg]

Bleh
I go broke here.

[eiseC]

i would easy fold here, looks like min. 2 Pair, would Say Set JJ or KK/AA, flushdraws etc.

[futuredoc85]

eh i usually go broke here, but you dont have too. I think you're ahead though. Problem is, even if they dont have a set, you're likely to see one some combination of flush draws and overcards and thats not gut. folding is OK cuz you got a decent stack still.

[apefish]

While willing to go broke in this spot - I win a ton of chips here.

Edited to add:
[ QUOTE ]
i would easy fold here, looks like min. 2 Pair, would Say Set JJ or KK/AA, flushdraws etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

I discount AA or KK tremendously.
This is TPGK and a draw often. Sets sometimes. Two pair on this board/action erm... rarely.
Lots of cards to dodge but man thats a juicy pot. Even winning against the larger stack keeps you well alive.

[mondonman]

Tough spot. I think I call and I do not expect to see KK/AA here.
A set is possible, but I think you´re up against a flush draw and TPGK way too often too fold this.

[futuredoc85]

[ QUOTE ]
Tough spot. I think I call and I do not expect to see KK/AA here.
A set is possible, but I think you´re up against a flush draw and TPGK way too often too fold this.

[/ QUOTE ]

well the problem is if you're up against both simultaneously that kinda sucks for you, esp if flush draw includes an A or a K as well.

[apefish]

FWIW.
I put the queens against exactly AJ off and KhTh on this flop to simulate the "worst of the best scenarios" with no hearts taken up.
the queens are 40 percent equity here, the AJ only 14 percent, and the KThearts is 45 percent.
Thats the two overcard, top pair, flush draw bad nonset situation.

It's hard even to say you are an underdog to stay alive because you will be up against the TPGK with a big enough side pot to matter at times in an overwhelming favorite position.
If someone has a set you are in rough shape- but discounting that to a smaller percentage of the times you are a ~1.5 to 1 dog to win the entire pot if you call ~2900 into what would be ~6000 at that point.
And some of those times you dont win the entire pot you do win like a 1550 chip side pot.

Someone can do ICM calcs from there factoring also for the side pot keeping you alive etc with some weighted ranges- but this spot seems okay.

If you give yourself KK same suits as the queens and give the players AJ off and QThearts here it changes to almost 47 percent equity for the KK while QThh drops to below 40.
On a QQ versus AJ versus AhTh type hand the queens are nearly 50 percent to hold.

Sure- once in a great while you are going to run into a situation where you are up against a set and a decent draw or something and are only 5 percent to win etc- but that's poker and I don't think it happens enough to pass up what is likely a decent spot at this buyin.
Against one person I go broke here all day long. I don't think having another person in the pot changes much of that.

If I see a calc that shows this untrue I would consider folding this spot more readily in the future.

In short- I dont think folding &gt; calling here by much if any. I just think at $11 stts I would rather not give my opponent too much credit in spots like these for plays like pushing a set into my PF raise.

Tough spot. I know I am more likely to hit call than fold here.

[mondonman]

sucks for sure, but we´re getting 2:1 here to win it all and that is more than we need with our holding and the likely holdings of our opponents.

As I said it is a tough spot. We are looking for +EV situations and this is one IMO, although it is slight.

[Unknown Soldier]

you see TPGK/flush draws here so often that the only thing making this hard is your stack imo. I'd still call though.