Live 100-200 Boring Hand

[johnsy]

UTG(semi good player, capable of moves, laydowns, big calls) raises, all fold to me in cutoff, i 3 bet 10h10c..all fold to UTG who calls. Flop js 9h 8s. Check, bet. Turn 3d. Check, bet. River 5h. Check, bet, he raises, i vomit and.....

[spino1i]

I think this is a pretty easy call. The draws all missed as well as the overcards missed, so he could very easily be bluffing here.

[emerson]

I call. I think he is trying to outbluff the bluffer. He raised UTG so probably either had a big pocket pair or an ace+face. If he had the big pocket pair I think he'd have check raised before the river. I think he puts you on two big cards that totally missed the board. Or perhaps he has like A9 or A8 suited. If it were pocket nines or pocket eights he would have made a move before the river, probably.

Only likely hand that beats you I think is AJ, but I think he check raises that on the flop also. I just don't see the hand that beats you that would not take the check raise opportunity given to him on the flop or turn.

[AndyatSD]

Boring hands are still sometimes interesting to analyze because you can see that there's still a lot of information in any 'ol 'boring' hand. I actually think there's an important part of this hand that's missing: how many handed was it? UTG in a 9 handed game versus UTG in a 6 handed game is quite different. If 9-10 players were present, then the UTG raise typically signifies a much stronger hand and I think emerson's post already summarized this situation. If the game was getting relatively short - then the range of UTG opens up a great deal more and although I wouldn't change my decision, the thought process behind wouldn't be as clear-cut as it first appeared. How tight is the player? Knowing this would define the range a lot more and allow us to think more accurately on what we should do.

But anyway call. If he has it, he has it. Like the other posters said you beat way too many hands here to fold.

On the other hand, if I knew who UTG was and if this wasn't a 9-10 handed game (re: it's a short game), I would actually be able to sometimes say fairly confidently in this case you lost to 55 or 67s or something whacky like that because although there are other likely hands that villian could have - most of them would bet out river or continue to check-call the river.

Any legit strong hand would have gotten aggressive with you on the flop or turn because no one is going anywhere with a 3 bet hand on a J98 board (AK would peel one, AQ has gutshot & sorta two overs, AJ hit, AA KK QQ self explanatory, JJ monster, TT good flop, 99 88 monster, 77 kind of meh but people typically don't even 3 bet UTG live with hands like 77 or KQ). By your description, UTG knows that.

So he's either peeling and/or determined to call down. If he's peeling - the 5 didn't help and it's an easy call for you (whereas 3 betting isn't as good of an option). If he slow played a monster I don't think he's a very good player and we were given wrong info to begin with. If he's been calling along with a pair like A8s, A9s, or did a loose raise with low pocket pair or medium suited connectors - I think the more likely move for him would NOT have been this particular line. With that said, I think the river check-raise signifies real strength here. Call and pay off.

~andy

[HOWMANY]

This looks exactly like a missed draw. Of course he could realize this looks exactly like a missed draw blah blah blah, so that makes me want to pay off. However when I actually think instead of just saying what the easiest play is I see that he raised UTG and then you fired again on the turn as well. These two things combined make it more likely that he has a good hand and that he thinks you will bet the river with pretty much anything you bet turn with. While I would usually semibluff c/r the turn if I was villain with a draw here, I would certainly do it on the river when I miss sometimes as well.

So I think there is a chance he'll show up with a set of 8s/9s (possibly AJ even though this would be the worst line possible for AJ here) here, though it does still look like a draw so I still call. He missed a lot of value against your range if he does have a set, so we either win by him playing bad and saving us money or by us having the best hand.

[daryn]

55. bad beat police.

[hoppscot22]

[ QUOTE ]
55. bad beat police.

[/ QUOTE ]

that was my thought

[andyfox]

If he went all in on the river, I'd fold. For one bet, I'd call.

[vmacosta]

"While I would usually semibluff c/r the turn if I was villain with a draw here, I would certainly do it on the river when I miss sometimes as well."

Really? I think this is a great board to semibluff the flop; decent, but not nearly as good to semibluff the turn; and really awful to bluff c/r the river.

Not sure what history you and villain have and regardless I'd probably just pay off, but I don't like your hand anymore and I think it might be close.

[johnsy]

Rasing is never an option here?