QJo from SB

[beyazkus]

well the turn raise screams a set of 3s or 7s, i can't think that he could be raising with A7s (spades) in that spot... Q7s or 73s? well some people play it, if we were to take the vpi for 60 hands seriously it could be possible, but still a set is more likely... another possiblity is that he was behind with QT on the flop and turned two pair... so to a set you have 2 outs (queens), to a two pair you have 3 outs (jacks), this is low limit so you always have to consider the possibity of something like JJ or 54s, 65s...

lets put these into percentages...

50% set - 2 out
35% two pair - 3 outs
15% flush or worse - 38 outs (46-9+1)
(the non spade outs, keeping in mind we have the J of spades)

after distributing the averages we get a total of 8 outs provided that our assumptions are correct. getting 9.5 - 1, its a clear call.

as for the river, if a non spade falls call him down. around 5-1 (15%) according to our previous assumptions for him to have a busted draw or something totally idiotic, and 11.5-1 in the pot.

[Clinger]

We have no outs against a set

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree, Sushi hit the nail on the head. He also called the turn play before I posted it. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

I 3-bet the flop. Now how do you guys feel about this turn decision given the 3 bet...

Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP folds, HJ calls, CO calls, Button calls, Hero calls, BB checks.

Flop (6 players, 6 SB): 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="red">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, HJ folds, <font color="red">CO raises</font>, Button folds, <font color="red">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB folds, CO calls.

Turn (2 players, 6.5 BB): 10[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="red">Hero bets</font>, <font color="red">CO raises</font>, Hero...?

What's our line for the rest of the hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Muck. You're most likely drawing to 3 outs or less.

If you don't want to muck to the turn raise, then don't 3-bet the flop or lead the turn. Just call the raise and check-call the turn. The river is often just another check-call, but I suppose you can donk-fold if you feel special or if you don't think he's value bet a weak suited queen.

[tehox]

I usually just 3bet the flop in these spots. Seems like people raise only with a flush draw or a monster, so make him pay when he has the draw, I don't think you can really think about folding at any point with this hand in this size pot.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
I usually just 3bet the flop in these spots. Seems like people raise only with a flush draw or a monster, so make him pay when he has the draw, I don't think you can really think about folding at any point with this hand in this size pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

So if he's raising the turn, do you think he has got a flush draw still? If not, then you know he has a "monster." What sort of monster does he have? TPWK (Q9 or worse)? I really don't think you have to call down.

If you think he'd pump a flush draw like this, then the read is wrong:

[ QUOTE ]
CO is 30/4/1.3 over ~100 hands. Note says "str84ward postflop"

[/ QUOTE ]

[Bulletproof Monk]

he probly called with QT

i fold the turn

[Clinger]

I should have re-included the note on CO when I posted the full hand. But I folded to the turn raise, and he proudly showed his set of treys.

I do think this turn fold is correct given we 3-towned the flop. If we had called the flop and donked the turn, then he raised, I think it's a bit closer to a call, even though the pot is smaller.