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Old 02-09-2007, 08:26 AM
cartman cartman is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
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Default Re: 600/1200 river

The fact that so many people are agonizing over whether to bet here is exactly why you should bet. Think of it from Neverwin's perspective. You haven't exactly telecast that your hand is as strong as it is here. You open raised on the button, continuation bet the flop, peeled, and then raised the turn and called a 3-bet. He has to assume that if he bets the river you will call nearly always. So for him to conclude that going for a checkraise on the river is superior to just betting, he would have to think you will bet/call at least half of the time or bluff a fair amount of hands that wouldn't have called had he bet. Neither of these is very plausible which tells me you are very likely to have the best hand here. Likely enough to merit a value bet in my opinion.
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