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Lottery with free tickets to another lottery. Calculate EV?
Scenario 1:
Lottery A: Chances of winning are 1:550k Price: $1/ticket Current prize $400k Promo- But 5 Lottery A tix, get 1 free lottery B tix Lottery B: Chances of winning are 1:150k Price: $1/ticket Current prize: $150k Scenario 2: Lottery A: Chances of winning are 1:550k Price: $1/ticket Current prize $550k Promo- But 5 Lottery A tix, get 1 free lottery B tix Lottery B: Chances of winning are 1:150k Price: $1/ticket Current prize: $300k In both scenarios, I think Lottery B is more +EV, but i cant do the math to prove it. Am i right? If so, how do you do the math to figure it out? |
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