Absolute badbeat jackpot odds

Pokerlogist · #1 08-05-2007, 01:54 AM

Seems like people are wondering whether the Absolute Poker Badbeat Jackpot (APBBJ) tables are worth playing given that extra rake is taken from them. I haven't seen anybody attempt to find the odds of hitting it. Being a bit of a math geek I felt the need to investigate. Using data from http://wizardofodds.com/holdem/badbeat.html
I believe the probability of a hand hitting the AP BBJ (8888 or better getting beat) is 0.00000519 per single hand which is expected to be 1 per 192,678 dealt hands. Some payout goes to everyone dealt at the table whether they are in the final hand or not. So if you are at a table 6 players per table you would be expected to share in the BBJ prize once every 32,113 hands. With 9 players at a table, it would be every 21,409 hands. So for frequent players the chances of getting something back from the BBJ rake are not infinitesimal. In fact, one site reported that when the BBJ prize is greater than $315,000 or so it is net profitable. At the time of this posting, Currenly the prize is at $345,00 and rising. BTW, I don't care if anyone wants or doesn't want to play there. I'm just trying to get the facts.

Pokeraddict · #2 08-05-2007, 04:12 AM

Also keep in mind that AP changed the BBJ terms again. It is now only 65% being paid out. 25% reseeds the next BBJ and AP keeps 10% of it. AP now keeps more of the BBJ because 5% more of it will get raked by AP over and over. In your example AP would rake another $1725 because of the extra "double" rake. That will also grow because the extra 5% of the 5% will get 10% raked over and over.

I'm sure AP thought they could pull that extra 5% rollover off without most people noticing it was just a shady way to get more rake. If I had put any BBJ rake in I would be throwing a fit with them since they are now keeping more of the BBJ rake you have already generated. This is what, the 4th time they have changed the BBJ terms?

Pokerlogist · #3 08-05-2007, 10:31 AM

Yes, AP has been very inconsisent. They've had changes in BBJ rules, bonus requirements, VIP benefits, rake, every few weeks. Personally I would prefer poker sites to be as "gimmick-free" as possible or at least be consistent for 6 months at a time. Just reduce the rake. Anyway bonusewhores computed the minimum size BBJ prize thresholds for net profit. Checking back it appears that they used the latest AP BBJ rake rules for their calculations, so they may be correct in using the minimum $315,000 (+-%15,000) figures.

BTW their calculations of the amount made per hour for the AP reload bonus seems too low given the new $5 for 20 VIP points structure. I wonder if they have not updated those figures yet. Maybe somebody here can post on that or maybe they already have somewhere.

Thanks for not pointing out my typos.

Niediam · #4 08-05-2007, 11:14 AM

I wonder if your number may be off somehow...

I just counted the total number of BBJ tables running which is was 124. And I assume this is one of the slowest times for AP as it is morning US time. Assuming 60 hands a hour (which also seems a little low based upon the lobby but I'd rather estimate low than high) that means 7440 hands an hour. Take 24 hours in a day and we get approximately 179k hands. However I'm defininately not seeing the BBJ hit on average anywhere near once per day...

I'm defininately not a math person so if I did something retarded let me know. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Pokerlogist · #5 08-05-2007, 12:26 PM

Thanks. You may not be math person but you did the right thing. I just checked the JP tables too and you have a point. [ Do you have an easier way to count the JP tables other than raw counting?]. Something is amiss. I got the badbeat probability from the wizardofodds site which is usually reliable. After checking their approach more carefully, I think that they assummed all qualifying starting hands go to showdown. This is unlikely in real play. Players throw away some potential straight flush cards and some pairs preflop thus lowering the probabilty of hitting the BBJ than the wizardofodds site would suggest. Back to the drawing board. The figures in my original may be much too optimistic. This also throws into question the bonuswhores calculation of minimum profitable JP size since we don't know how it was calculated. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

sixers030409 · #6 08-05-2007, 12:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I wonder if your number may be off somehow...

I just counted the total number of BBJ tables running which is was 124. And I assume this is one of the slowest times for AP as it is morning US time. Assuming 60 hands a hour (which also seems a little low based upon the lobby but I'd rather estimate low than high) that means 7440 hands an hour. Take 24 hours in a day and we get approximately 179k hands. However I'm defininately not seeing the BBJ hit on average anywhere near once per day...

I'm defininately not a math person so if I did something retarded let me know. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

His math is def way off, i could prob figure it out but dont really feel like it. All i know is its a long shot in hitting it. maybe he missed a 0 at the end and its 1 in 1,920,000 hands and not 1 in 192,000 hands. that seems much closer to being right

sixers030409 · #7 08-05-2007, 12:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks. You may not be math person but you did the right thing. I just checked the JP tables too and you have a point. [ Do you have an easier way to count the JP tables other than raw counting?]. Something is amiss. I got the badbeat probability from the wizardofodds site which is usually reliable. After checking their approach more carefully, I think that they assummed all qualifying starting hands go to showdown. This is unlikely in real play. Players throw away some potential straight flush cards and some pairs preflop thus lowering the probabilty of hitting the BBJ than the wizardofodds site would suggest. Back to the drawing board. The figures in my original may be much too optimistic. This also throws into question the bonuswhores calculation of minimum profitable JP size since we don't know how it was calculated. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe its also not taking into account you have to use BOTH holecards?

Pokerlogist · #8 08-05-2007, 01:16 PM

I checked and they say that "the bad beat and winning hand must make use of both hole cards." So that part is okay.
I believe the thrown away hole cards are the issue. If, for example, 50% of the potential BBJ hole cards are thrown out in real play then the probability of winning it is pretty much cut in half compared to the showndown probability in the OP. I don't have a reliable estimate of what the actual "folded BBJ hole cards" percentage is right now.

Pokeraddict · #9 08-05-2007, 01:44 PM

I have over 750,000 hands at AP in my PT and I've never been at a table that qualified. My avg players per hand is 5.7. The math is certainly off. If not a high volume player would be in a BBJ hand once a week.

Pokerlogist · #10 08-05-2007, 05:42 PM

Whew! that's a lot of poker. Surely most of those hands were not at BBJ tables. The promotion has only been on since June 22, 2007. The probability in the OP is definitely inflated. BTW during the first 28 days the BBJ was hit 6 times so that's about 1.5 times a week.

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2007/7/prweb541005.htm