PokerFink's 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 3)

[PokerFink]

A major shake-up at the top this week as Green Bay and Dallas deliver convincing victories over the NFL's former elite while New Orleans takes the biggest freefall in the history of my rankings, switching places with Tampa Bay. After three weeks, things are finally beginning to settle down and come into focus, but I'm sure something crazy will happen to shake them back up.

Disclaimer: My rankings are NOT a traditional power rankings. They are PROJECTIVE, meaning we are ranking based on where teams will finish. Rankings are done based on the playoff guidelines. For a full explanation, please see this post.

<font color="Blue"> 1. DALLAS (3-0) </font> <font color="red"> *UP 5* </font>: Taking advantage of a beat up, tired and dispirited Chicago defense left out to dry by their anemic offense, Dallas pulled away with an impressive second half performance and delivered a strong message to the rest of the NFC. With a 3-0 start and a home game against Green Bay looming later in the season, the Boys are sitting pretty and could easily be 5-0 heading into their Week 6 showdown with New England. But before we crown their asses, remember that Dallas looked like the best team in the NFC at one point last year as well before collapsing. NEXT: vs. St. Louis.

<font color="Blue"> 2. GREEN BAY (3-0) </font> <font color="red"> *UP 3* </font>: Like Dallas, Green Bay delivered a strong statement about their legitimacy in beating San Diego. Brett Favre continued his efficient and effective play from last week, completing 28 of 45 (62%) for 369 yards (8.2ypa) and three scores. On the downside, the Pack still have no running game. NEXT: @ Minnesota.

<font color="Blue"> 3. SEATTLE (2-1) </font> <font color="red"> </font>: In a sloppy (six turnovers), back and forth affair, Seattle landed the last punch as Hasselbeck hit Nate Burleson for the winning touchdown with only a minute left. While Shaun Alexander racked up 100 yards on just 21 carries (4.8ypc), his performance was merely average against the weak Bengals defense and he had too many wasted runs - three carries for no gain and two carries that lost yardage. Seattle has been uninspiring so far, but uninspiring is enough to win the West. NEXT: @ San Francisco.

<font color="Blue"> 4. TAMPA BAY (2-1) </font> <font color="red"> *UP 10* </font>: Wins over New Orleans and St. Louis aren't exactly cause for a parade, but Tampa has certainly been more impressive than Carolina so far. Above average might be enough for Tampa to win the South, but I'm willing to entertain the idea that they might actually be better than that. NEXT: @ Carolina.

<font color="Blue"> 5. CHICAGO (1-2) </font> <font color="red"> *DOWN 4* </font>: Last week I said, "if Rex can’t get it going against the porous Dallas secondary, he may never get it going." Another miserable performance Sunday night means Bad Rex has shown up for every game so far, and it doesn't look like Good Rex is coming out any time soon. While Grossman has been terrible all year, this was a team loss. Chicago needs a good running game for its offense to go, but the ground attack was anemic once again - Benson and Peterson combined for just 63 yards on 22 carries (2.9ypc) and Benson fumbled. Berrian dropped several balls. Owens ran the same deep in pattern all game long without anyone covering him. The front seven missed tackles and failed to wrap up Romo when they got pressure. Everyone on the roster deserves a share of the blame, but an inordinate proportion will fall unfairly on Grossman. NEXT: @ Detroit.

<font color="Blue"> 6. WASHINGTON (2-1) </font> <font color="red"> *DOWN 4* </font>: With Shaun Suisham's last second field goal, the Skins took a 17-3 lead into halftime and all was well. The defense was strong, the running game was productive and the passing game produced first downs and the occasional big play - Redskins football to a T. Then the second half started, and the Skins collapsed. The offense sputtered to a stop while the defense found no answers for Burress and Shockey. Watching the game, I wasn't sure what the problem was, but Joe Gibbs and his all-star staff have two weeks to come up with some answers. NEXT: Bye.

<font color="Blue"> 7. PHILADELPHIA (1-2) </font> <font color="red"> *UP 1* </font>: The offense racked up 473 yards and six touchdowns in the first half alone in route to a total destruction of formerly undefeated Detroit. This game was the perfect example of overreacting to a couple early games. Detroit won a pair of close games over bad opponents and wasn't nearly as good as their record, while Philly lost a pair of close games to good teams and was much better than their record. Philly was the better team, and boy did it show. Going forward, McNabb was much more accurate without the knee brace, and the timing that was "a hair off" according to Andy Reid was certainly spot on this week. Philadelphia showed what it's capable of, but they will need more performances like this to dig themselves out of their early hole. NEXT: @ New York Giants.

<font color="Blue"> 8. SAN FRANCISCO (2-1) </font> <font color="red"> *DOWN 1* </font>: There were no last-minute heroics this week as the Niners were thoroughly beaten by the Steelers. Frank Gore (14 - 39 - 2.8ypc) struggled against the stacked Pittsburgh front seven, as the Steelers dared Alex Smith to beat them. He was not up to the task, completing just 17 of 35 passes (49%) for 209 yards (6ypa), with one touchdown toss to each team. Fortunately for Smith and the Niners, they have a chance to right the Wildcard Bandwagon (and even take over first place in the division) this week against Seattle. NEXT: vs. Seattle.

<font color="Blue"> 9. CAROLINA (2-1) </font> <font color="red"> </font>: Carolina defeated Atlanta despite being outgained by 129 yards, and their two wins have come over opponents who are a combined 0-6. Much like Seattle, Carolina has been uninspiring so far, but also like Seattle, uninspiring might be enough to win the division. NEXT: vs. Tampa Bay.

<font color="Blue"> 10. ARIZONA (1-2) </font> <font color="red"> </font>: Behind a rare Kurt Warner cameo, Arizona continued to play good football this week as they hung tough against a solid Baltimore squad on the road. While Leinart was ineffective (9 of 20, 53 yards), I don't understand the point in benching him. Ken Wisenhunt must stand by his franchise quarterback and endure the bumpy road as Leinart develops. Part of that development is struggling against a defense like Baltimore, in my opinion. NEXT: vs. Pittsburgh.

<font color="Blue"> 11. DETROIT (2-1) </font> <font color="red"> </font>: In the fantasy football world, Kitna's 446 yard, two touchdown performance was excellent. In the real world, Kitna also threw a pick, got sacked an absurd nine times and fumbled twice. The defensive line got nowhere near McNabb, the cornerbacks got nowhere near Kevin Curtis, and no one could tackle Brian Westbrook in the blowout loss. NEXT: vs. Chicago.

<font color="Blue"> 12. NEW YORK (1-2) </font> <font color="red"> *UP 3* </font>: Somewhere, somehow, somebody turned the New York switch to "ON" for the second half, and the Giants came out on fire. Burress, especially, had a great second half (5 rec, 86 yds, td) after a miserable first half (0 rec, 3 drops). And while Washington's playcalling was miserable on the final few plays (why are you spiking the ball?), kudos to the Giants for a game-winning goal-line stand. NEXT: vs. Philadelphia.

<font color="Blue"> 13. MINNESOTA (1-2) </font> <font color="red"> *DOWN 1* </font>: With Tavaris Jackson nursing a groin pull, the Vikings turned to Kelly Holcomb with predictable results. Although in fairness to Holcomb, who completed 14 of 28 for 165 yards (5.9ypa), his mediocre performance is an improvement over Tavaris. Meanwhile, Adrian Peterson is an absolute stud, gaining 150 yards on 28 touches (5.4ypt) with another touchdown. NEXT: vs. Green Bay.

<font color="Blue"> 14. NEW ORLEANS (0-3) </font> <font color="red"> *DOWN 10* </font>: This game was lost in the trenches, where the New Orleans O-Line was absolutely demolished by the Tennessee D-Line. The Saints had no rushing game, as Bush, McAllister and Stecker combined for 26 yards on 14 carries (1.8ypc), and Tennessee got consistent pressure with just their four down lineman. On the other side of the ball, the Saints had no pass rush of their own to protect Jason David and the miserable secondary. NEXT: Bye.

<font color="Blue"> 15. ST. LOUIS (0-3) </font> <font color="red"> *DOWN 2* </font>: "The good news is that the passing game, which collapsed last year without Orlando Pace, showed some promise without the big left tackle – Bulger threw for 368 yards." That was last week. This is this week: 17 of 26 for just 116 yards (4.5ypa), no touchdowns, one sack and three interceptions, including one in the endzone. Steven Jackson continues to struggle as well - averaging just 3.8ypc this week - and now he's hurt as well. It's not going to get much better for the Rams. NEXT: @ Dallas.

<font color="Blue"> 16. ATLANTA (0-3) </font> <font color="red"> </font>: With Byron Leftwich hovering over his shoulder, Joey Harrington delivered a surprisingly strong performance, completing 31 of 44 (71%) for 361yards (8.2ypa) and two scores with no picks and only one sack. But first quarter fumbles by Warrick Dunn and holder Matt Koenen cost the Falcons early points, allowing Carolina to stay close in the first half and pull away in the second. NEXT: vs. Houston.

[MyTurn2Raise]

Arizona = best 1-2 team everz!!!!!!!


good list

[PokerFink]

Poll Time.

[Billy Bibbit]

Atlanta has at least been competitive against two decent teams. I'm having a hard time putting St. Louis or even New Orleans ahead of them. Marc Bulger has two broken ribs and I bet he'll sit out since it's obvious that St. Louis has nothing to play for. The Rams are the worst team in the NFL IMO.

I guess it's a good list when the only thing I'd change are the 14-16 ranked teams.

[Pudge714]

I just realized the Vikings are surprisingly close to be being the worst 3-0 team ever.

[PokerFink]

LOL I totally forgot about this when I was writing the comments this week.

This is part of my comment for the Lions from Week 1:

[ QUOTE ]
The problem is that if Josh McCown and the Oakland offense can rack up 375 yards and 21 points, what will Donovan McNabb do to them in two weeks time?

[/ QUOTE ]

[tdarko]

Fink-

I was wrong previously about the Pack, they are pretty good. I agree w/ you on TB as well.

[ QUOTE ]
But before we crown their asses, remember that Dallas looked like the best team in the NFC at one point last year as well before collapsing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously nobody has won the SB in week 3, you're right there. I don't think they were the best in the NFC last year at one point--they were top 3 at their peak though and to be honest they were a lot better (talented) team than their record indicated and how their season ended. Parcells held them back a ton, they had all of the pieces in place to explode but Parcells was way to rigid and I said it in SE countless times. Dallas lost most of their games b/c of Parcells' inability to adapt--this is why there were cheers when he retired and cheers when Jason Garrett was hired as the O-coordinator.

That team was also a botched snap from winning a playoff game too. So it isn't like this team wasn't talented, Parcells just needed to leave.

[ QUOTE ]
The front seven missed tackles and failed to wrap up Romo when they got pressure.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't blame the Chi defense for failing to wrap Romo up, he makes EVERYONE miss...last years defensive player of the year Jason Taylor missed him countless times the week before and said he may be the toughest guy to tackle they may face all year.


I was looking at the first 3 games and think that Dallas and GB are closer to each other than I realized.

[mmbt0ne]

[ QUOTE ]
<font color="Blue"> 14. NEW ORLEANS (0-3) </font>
...
<font color="Blue"> 16. ATLANTA (0-3) </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank God order has been restored. These past few years had been a little confusing.

[rafiki]

nice to see the Cowboys at the top. Good list [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[hoyasnaxa]

Much better, I actually agree with your list. I also think I need to see a little more from Tampa before I think they are legit, but their division is so awful and Garcia is so good.