#1
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25 Max - Pair + FD = all in?
Villain is awful. He's running at 73/27/1.33 over a very small sample (~25 hands) and obviously has no idea what he's doing. Also, what do you guys do here preflop? I could see arguments for folding, calling, and raising, and I've been confused in these situations. I think my flop raise is standard, do you guys agree? And obviously, do you call this push?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) UTG ($39.05) MP ($29.40) Hero ($27.25) SB ($14.10) BB ($25.90) Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $0.5</font>, MP calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $0.25. Flop: ($2.10) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $1</font>, MP folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3.5</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $38.55</font>, Hero ??? |
#2
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Re: 25 Max - Pair + FD = all in?
I wouldn't raise this flop. No Fold equity on this board/villain.
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#3
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Re: 25 Max - Pair + FD = all in?
You have like 40% equity against a range of sets, straights, etc and you're getting 3:1 from the pot...guess this is a call. I don't think he'd play AcTc this way since he's already got the nuts so no worries about a higher flush.
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#4
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Re: 25 Max - Pair + FD = all in?
Call flop
as played snapcall and pray for a club |
#5
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Re: 25 Max - Pair + FD = all in?
Uhh they just stole your equity. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
Call vs this guy, we've prob got like 9+2 outs atleast 60-70% Of time. |
#6
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Re: 25 Max - Pair + FD = all in?
[ QUOTE ]
You have like 40% equity against a range of sets, straights, etc and you're getting 3:1 from the pot...guess this is a call. I don't think he'd play AcTc this way since he's already got the nuts so no worries about a higher flush. [/ QUOTE ] Am I missing something here? It looks more like 1.4:1 than 3:1. We have like 30% equity against a set (2.3:1) We have like 37% equity against a straight (1.7:1) We have like 40% equity against two pair (1.5:1) We're 45:55 vs. AA (had to check that one) (1.2:1) We're about even with AK I suppose we're ahead 3:1 against TT. You think he has something worse often? If you give him everything I just mentioned, we're behind 58.8:41.2, or 1.43:1, and the pot is giving us 1.38:1. I'm not so sure this is such a snap call ... |
#7
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Re: 25 Max - Pair + FD = all in?
Big draws are valuable because although you're a coinflip if called, you gain FE from being aggressive. This is the MAIN reason they are profitable. Since villain is AI, we obviously have 0 FE, so the profitability falls a lot.
Poker Stove Output: Hand 0: Jc8c 49.031% Equity Hand 1: TT+, AQs+, KQs, AKo, 3d2s 50.969% Equity, I think this is the optimistic range he's on. TT is probably out, as is the 32o to represent a pure bluff. If you take them out, your equity falls to 42%. Add in the fact that your draw is not to the nuts, your equity will fall if you weight hands with clubs more heavily. You need 44%+ to make calling profitable, so it's probably not a big mistake either way. If you feel lucky go for it. I fold to avoid the giant swings taking these sorts of bets brings. |
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