27T: Go beyond ICM to make this bubble call?

TruFloridaGator · #1 07-03-2007, 05:25 PM

Villain is pushing ATC for sure here & will be doing so the next hand because the table is wicked tight. He'll shove in every opportunity he can. Not going to have much opportunity for a +EV play the rest of the way. I haven't looked this up yet, but I assume it will be a bit -EV. We will pwn the bubble if we win this hand. Can we ever call and take a slightly -EV play here? I'm asking in application to a smaller -EV situation if this one isn't actually that close.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button (t1785)
SB (t5043)
Hero (t2892)
UTG (t3780)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t5018</font>, Hero ?

KoreanBuffet · #2 07-03-2007, 05:32 PM

Bubbling in this spot sucks, I think I just fold this away and let the SB shove shove and let blinds eat away the button, looking for one of my top hands. However if the shortstack were to double up we are in a world of hurt, and this may have been our best spot to double. Still in this type of situation i am folding to cash and hoping to be able to make some moves ITM.

CmnDwnWrkn · #3 07-03-2007, 05:33 PM

Interesting post. I think what you are asking is whether it would ever be correct to make a -EV play for the current hand with the possibility of picking up greater EV on future hands. Maybe you could call this "Implied EV". Great question, and one I'll have to think about some...

Pudge714 · #4 07-03-2007, 05:35 PM

This would be more interesting if button was deeper as is it's a pretty easy fold imo.

Shillx · #5 07-03-2007, 05:45 PM

Clear call

KoreanBuffet · #6 07-03-2007, 06:03 PM

plz explain how this is a clear call Shillx, not trying to call you out i would just like to hear your argument for the play.

Shillx · #7 07-03-2007, 06:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
plz explain how this is a clear call Shillx, not trying to call you out i would just like to hear your argument for the play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't run it but this has to be +EV or very close to it in a freezeout situation. Just from looking at it, it seems like a top 10% spot and A8s is the worst hand in the top 10% range. So I'm guessing it is like 0% +/- 0.1% and we figure to make a good amount down the line if we double up. I have no idea how low you can go here but something like A8o might be a fun decision.

PattdownManiac · #8 07-03-2007, 06:34 PM

It's a clear call if you've never worked with ICM tools lol.

ymu · #9 07-03-2007, 06:36 PM

If he's pushing ATC every hand the only opportunity you will get to open push is UTG. He's got no real incentive to call a push from shortie when he's pwning the bubble. If you double up here you will be pwning the bubble. Those three factors add some EV to a call that isn't captured by ICM and it's close anyway.

Call.

Little John · #10 07-03-2007, 06:38 PM

OK, i cheated. Just plugging this into sngpt shows calling to be neg .2%, or 50 cents. You are going to donate 225 chips next hand so calling is not that bad. I guess in game I fold but after looking at I think you can go either way. The times you do win this you will be able to get a lot of extra EV than shown by sngpt becasue of the bigstack.