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#1
06-19-2007, 08:48 AM
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Standard Turn Decision
basically all unknowns. i've played NL with a couple guys, but they're not in this hand.
medium stakes live game playing like a typical small stakes online game. a wierd lady UTG raises, a MP who seems like a goof 3bets and i coldcap on the button with T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], blinds bolt, rest call. Flop(13.5sb): J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] UTG bets, MP raises, i 3bet, UTG caps, we call. Turn(12.75bb): K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] UTG bets, MP raises... what's my plan? **BONUS QUESTION: how many bets would you spend to showdown UI? definitions: wierd- capable of fluctuating between loose passive and loose aggressive. depends on her mood, i guess. very little rhyme or reason to her play. slowplays and fastplays monsters. most of the other opponents don't like her. goofy- basically capable of choosing the worst possible play at the worst possible moment. 
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#2
06-19-2007, 09:35 AM
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Re: Standard Turn Decision
I just call here. Given preflop action and the spades accounted for a flush isn't that likely, even though Asxs is not at all impossible. KK/JJ is pretty likely, 77 possible as well. A distant possibility is 98s/AQ. Looking at hands we beat, AA (without, or more probable, with As), KJ and KT (these hands becomes less likely because of the preflop action) and obviously 77. QsQ isn't that unlikely either, maybe someone will show up with KxQs sometimes too. I don't think our hand is worth 3-betting on the turn given their range. We have a hard time protecting against anything with outs so a raise should be for value and with this action and the range i've assigned to them I don't think there's value in a 3-bet.
I call a cap and most rivers for 1BB. I havn't played fixed or posted in this forum in ages, this will be interesting [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#3
06-19-2007, 09:43 AM
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Re: Standard Turn Decision
[ QUOTE ]
I havn't played fixed or posted in this forum in ages, this will be interesting [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] it's good to see you back.
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#4
06-19-2007, 11:47 AM
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Re: Standard Turn Decision
[ QUOTE ]
basically all unknowns. i've played NL with a couple guys, but they're not in this hand. medium stakes live game playing like a typical small stakes online game. a wierd lady UTG raises, a MP who seems like a goof 3bets and i coldcap on the button with T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], blinds bolt, rest call. Flop(13.5sb): J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] UTG bets, MP raises, i 3bet, UTG caps, we call. Turn(12.75bb): K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] UTG bets, MP raises... what's my plan? **BONUS QUESTION: how many bets would you spend to showdown UI? definitions: wierd- capable of fluctuating between loose passive and loose aggressive. depends on her mood, i guess. very little rhyme or reason to her play. slowplays and fastplays monsters. most of the other opponents don't like her. goofy- basically capable of choosing the worst possible play at the worst possible moment. [/ QUOTE ] maybe im too cautious, but i call
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#6
06-19-2007, 04:19 PM
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Re: Standard Turn Decision
This is a mean one. Nothing has slowed down either opponent this far. Worst case scenario is 4BB's get you 6:1 to see the river. You could be ahead. You could also be drawing to one out against an overset. With two Villians, you have no cost control. They can keep raising and that is all they have done so far. If you don't 3 bet, it looks like you will wind up capped anyway. I think that your only chance to slow down this freight train (and it may be a slim chance at that) is to 3 bet. But I hate it.
Bonus question: Worst case scenario leaves you forced to call a cap for 4 BB into a pot of 36BB. I'd kill for some kind of read on the players, particularly UTG. And if your 3 bet puts the brakes on at least one of these goofs, you can control the price of poker on the river. So if you want to see the river and think you are going to get capped anyway. 3 bet the turn yourself and see if that helps you put on some brakes. U/I you have the odds to painfully go the distance. Live reads you gotta go with versus some online advice here. If you become convinced that you are up against the straight, flush or BOTH, let it go. Even improved with a river card that pairs the board, little caution is warranted. I had oversets clobber me twice Friday.
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#7
06-19-2007, 07:03 PM
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Re: Standard Turn Decision
call the turn, fold a 4 flush river if 3 ways (which it will be more than likely) and fold if its ever 2 bets back to u on a non spade river. I also wouldnt want to put in more action on the river unless a T or 7 fall, the 7s close tho if it goes bet call id pop once then call a 3bet).
u can probably also fold on the river if a one card straight comes out and the river goes ck bet u call, then UTG cr's and MP just calls). some how i think ur drawing dead vs a royal tho [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] kinda jk
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#8
06-19-2007, 07:34 PM
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Re: Standard Turn Decision
Okay, I'm going to catch all kinds of grief here for being weak-tight, but this is a very tough spot, having to (1) call two cold on the turn (2) against a MP goof who has jammed the pot at every opportunity and (3) on a flush board that's also straightened. Could the goof be playing 98, AQ, or two spades? Even Qs9s? Seems like it from your description. So you have 10 outs on the river, or a 20% chance of making your FH or quads, and the players in front of you aren't slowing down.
Let me be the first to say it... FOLD. I hate folding here, but I think the chances of you wasting more money on this hand are greater than the chances you'll be kicking yourself for folding when the hand is over.
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#9
06-19-2007, 07:45 PM
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Re: Standard Turn Decision
Most likely your up against a set of kings vs. either a set of Jacks or AA with the ace of spades. Even weird and goofy player sometimes wake up with a big hand. Regardless you gotta see the river at this point, you helped make the pot too big to lay down. If they 3 bet and cap maybe you need to reevaluate. I also, like jstill's plan to dump the hand if the 4 flush or 4 card straight hits the riv. A raise here may slow the freight train down for now, but it won't save us if the 4 flush, 4 straight, paired board hits the river. Just call and hope weirdy slows down, now that the flush appeared. I don't think anyone has the royal, yet, because they are still jamming the pot on the turn. My experience in live games is that either one or the other would have been afraid of losing action on the turn if they bet or raise ( I know it is flawed and there are exceptions but donkeys seem to think this way). What if you raise here, and they do slow down and then check to you on the river? Do you bet the river unimproved? I think calling is your best bet.
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#10
06-20-2007, 08:10 AM
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Re: Standard Turn Decision
Based on two important factors, namely your reads on the opponents and that the table conditions are like a "typical small stakes online game", I 3bet & call a cap, calling 1 bet on the river UI or raise/calling a 3bet if the river pairs the board (I'd go at least 4 if it's the case T).
I honestly think that many of the responses in this thread are giving these opponents too much credit in their hand ranges.
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