Very interesting 100-200 hand. Need all the help i can get!

[Nezzar]

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ITS THE RIVER THAT MAKES THIS HAND INTERESTING!


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actually i think that is 100% wrong.
the key to this hand is the turn, the river is totally standard.

i personally fold the turn cuz i think that most good players will have a very low bluffing frequency on a blank turn after the preflop and flop action.

i think making calls like this on the turn is a bad play long term w/o specific reads as in general ppl just dont bluff in this spot that often.

that being said if you do decide villian will bluff the turn often enough to make it a call the river is a very easy call.

also your contention that villian's range is polarized is non-sense as hero's hand is face up and if villian doesnt value bet JJ+ he's not even 1/2 way good/tough.

hero is NEVER c/c 2 streets OOP with Ax and his range is so redic tilted towards smaller pp that not shoving river with AA/JJ is just burning up money.

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like more than half of what u say i agree with. Not the last part that Hero would not C/C two streets with an ace that part i dont agree with... and not the first part either.

I agree that folding turn would be best bc of what u said regarding flop and preflop action. Personally i would probably call turn even tho i have a strong feeling that this is spew. I also would c/c two streets with A-J so maybe heros range is rediciously tilted two a small PP but mine certainly isnt...

the thing is that when villain knows im calling with A-J on turn then suddenly the river becomes and easy call with 7-7.

Also one more thing that havent been considered. even if villain doesnt bluff turn often enough to make it a good call he can bluff river enough to make the turn call good. You know what i mean?
Lets say villain doesnt bluff turn especially often with flop and preflop action. lets say he bluffs 10% of the time here. it costs u 4K to call so its a bad call. But on river his bluffing frequency is depending on the board. If he was bluffing on turn villain will bluff 100% with an ace river but else he wont bluff at all, just give up (this is hypothetical, a model if u will). this still makes for a bad call but some of the time villain has bet turn in protection and to get a showdown with a worse hand (kind of a blockingbet but in position). if villain bluffs 15% on turn then its ev+ to call turn if u know how to play the river (i.e asess what rivers villain would continue to bluff on).

On the river you can use your hand reading skills to decide wether u should call or not and thus make up for the EV you lost on turn... im not sure how to explain this...

do i make any sense at all?