Your thoughts on this hand....call or no call?

tortuga0981 · #1 07-03-2007, 07:12 AM

We are down to 12 in the $5 rebuy and I'm sitting with a little less than average stack. My table is 6 handed when this hand comes up. Something to think about...Player pushing has 6bb's and will be hit with the blinds next hand.

Let me know what you think?

PokerStars Game #10728242546: Tournament #54104504, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em
No Limit - Level XX (5000/10000) - 2007/07/02 - 10:32:34 (ET)
Table '54104504 2' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: Callisto 5 (165280 in chips)
Seat 2: tortuga0981 (107795 in chips)
Seat 3: isakov (60602 in chips)
Seat 7: aquee (200282 in chips)
Seat 8: Carlos22 (221868 in chips)
Seat 9: toffee74 (93670 in chips)
Callisto 5: posts the ante 1000
tortuga0981: posts the ante 1000
isakov: posts the ante 1000
aquee: posts the ante 1000
Carlos22: posts the ante 1000
toffee74: posts the ante 1000
Callisto 5: posts small blind 5000
tortuga0981: posts big blind 10000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to tortuga0981 [9h Ks]
isakov: raises 49602 to 59602 and is all-in
aquee: folds
Carlos22: folds
toffee74: folds
Callisto 5: folds
tortuga0981: ????

registrar · #2 07-03-2007, 07:30 AM

Why does no one convert hands any more? I'd call everytime if UTG is playing anywhere near optimally.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t5000/t10000
(Ante: t1000)
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t60602
UTG+1: t200282
CO: t221868
Button: t93670
SB: t165280
Hero: t107795

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises all-in t59602</font>. Hero?

JammyDodga · #3 07-03-2007, 07:32 AM

Whats the payout structure in that tourney? i.e is there a big jump coming up/just gone?

tortuga0981 · #4 07-03-2007, 07:51 AM

The payouts are top heavy...1st and 2nd get a little over a grand while 9th gets only $102. At that point I was getting $50. I don't think it's really about the money though. Knowing that with his stack and position this SS is almost pushing any two and K9 is ahead of most there...right?

registrar · #5 07-03-2007, 07:58 AM

No, I don't think he's pushing any two by any means. You're going to be behind his range which I would put at, concervatively and FTSOA, A8+, kT+, QT+, JTs+, 55+. But there's so much in the pot, you simply have to call, unless you have a very good strategic reason not to.

tomek322 · #6 07-03-2007, 08:41 AM

umm... fold it's half your stack, your hand sucks. You can most likely pick up blinds and ante's once out of the blinds.

JammyDodga · #7 07-03-2007, 08:41 AM

I'd widen his range to any Ace, K8+ 22+, he knows that as soon as he hits that big blind he has no FE left at all.

JammyDodga · #8 07-03-2007, 08:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The payouts are top heavy...1st and 2nd get a little over a grand while 9th gets only $102. At that point I was getting $50. I don't think it's really about the money though. Knowing that with his stack and position this SS is almost pushing any two and K9 is ahead of most there...right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, i think you have to be thinking about payouts here, a lot of tourneys make a big jump at 9-10, i've seen it go from 1.5 buyins up to 4-5. This can make a big impact on others play, and should effect yours as well.

I'd say call, because if you do win you are in a position to bully the smaller stacks a bit, rather than being in all-in or fold territory where you are now. If you lose, you are still in that position, but with less FE.

If you win you have to think with some good play you are guerenteed 6 or 7th and up. Where's if you fold you still have to get lucky to make the final table.

registrar · #9 07-03-2007, 08:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd widen his range to any Ace, K8+ 22+, he knows that as soon as he hits that big blind he has no FE left at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd widen his range too. This was a conservative estimate for the sake of argument: it should be wider but it's an FT bubble. The point is that calling is +EV agaisnt an overly conservative range so make the call.

gvegas · #10 07-03-2007, 09:20 PM

This is much closer than you guys are making it out to be. Against the top 25% of hands, K9o has 39% equity or 1.6 to 1 (which is what the pot is laying you). His range could definately be wider, but thats not a given. Some people hang on to the bitter end hoping for a hand to double up with. I would need to see how tight this player was. But even if villain has a wider range making the call +ev, can't you find a better spot to gamble almost half your stack? If i was up against a table full of players that were better than me i might gamble, but I think folding is fine.