Large Pot With Aces - Page 4

Jeffage · #31 05-04-2007, 07:47 AM

Guys, thanks for the good thread and sorry I've taken so long - I have been extremely busy lately. Sorry I can't respond to more posts.

I think raising the flop is probably a good idea because it does put everyone in the middle in a tough spot even though the pot is huge. I just didn't think people would fold much of anything in this game (any pair, decent club, gutshots, etc) and I felt that there were a ton of turn cards that could come that would make me wish I hadn't splashed on the flop. I just think in this game, and in a huge pot like this where people will not want to fold and that if I'm somehow winning my hand is tenuous at best, that waiting for the turn is probably better. I know that the preflop capper will lead again and I can see if anyone checkraises, etc.

Anyway...my thinking on the turn (after it's re-raised) goes something like this. I understand that it's unlikely that I'm good and that I could be drawing dead. But I'm getting 25-1 to call one bet and I thought there was more than a 4% chance that my hand is currently best. Look at it this way - if you're the solid aggro player and you flop a set or flush on this board in this pot, are you not going to bet and raise at every opportunity on the flop? Are you really going to check-call? Even the nut flush would probably spray right away. So what hands would he check-call and then check-three bet the turn? 75 is possible. An unconventially played flush is possible. I don't think a flopped set is very likely - after there is a bet and that many callers there is some non-zero chance that the turn will be checked through. Are you really taking the chance playing it this way if you flopped a set?

I think there is enough chance that he is making an aggro play with something like KQ with the Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and the preflop raiser could have AK with the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], ESPECIALLY when he doesn't cap the turn. I mean - if you have a set of kings, why not cap. The pot is huge, you could def be ahead, you put max pressure on the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and if you're losing, you can suck out.

So anyway, I don't think I could lay this down with no turn cap and one bet on a non-king, non-club river. So I didn't. More comments welcome.

Jeff

Jeffage · #32 05-04-2007, 07:50 AM

So as I alluded to in my last post, I called the turn 3-bet. The river blanked - something like a red deuce. Solid MP player bet, cutoff called and I called.

MP rolls over the 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for a turned set. CO then turns over KK for top set which I was pretty surprised he didn't cap the turn with. And I discarded my hand and listened to speculation about what I had for 10 mins or so before getting a huge salad in the cafeteria.

Jeff

Jeffage · #33 05-04-2007, 07:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
When people are planning to checkraise the turn and someone raises before them some generally coldcall and some generally 3bet. your guy sounds like he's in the later group, for that reason you should call.

[/ QUOTE ]

V. good point.

Jeff

Bad Lobster · #34 05-04-2007, 09:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
... I just didn't think people would fold much of anything in this game (any pair, decent club, gutshots, etc) ...

So anyway, I don't think I could lay this down with no turn cap and one bet on a non-king, non-club river. So I didn't. More comments welcome.

Jeff

[/ QUOTE ]

I think what's interesting here is not just what happened, but what didn't. Three players went to the river with only one club (the 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) between you. All the action came not from people with powerful clubs but from people afraid of one. This goes to show:

<ul type="square">[*]You can never be completely sure the hand you're scared of is out there [*]Unless there was really only one club dealt among 8 players (unlikely), all that raising bought 8 outs. (Unfortunately, you bought them not for you but for the guy with the 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].)[*]Anybody who folded a medium club like the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] made a big mistake.[/list]
If you'd been the guy with the 3's and a club came on the end, would you have folded to a bet?

johnnyrocket · #35 05-04-2007, 09:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I raise the flop and face the field with two bets. Obviously you don't fold out single high clubs or pairs, but the runner runner guys get lost and it's pure valuetown. This isn't a spot to wait for the turn given your relative position I think. I guess I call down given the big pot and your read.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

accept i think it is clear ur beat and i'd fold the turn.