AC Hand - 6th Street Scenario

[Andy B]

It just wouldn't occur to me not to bet here. Checking sure would look strange. Are we to give him a free shot at a wheel when he may well not pay off with a second-best hand?

[grapes]

I would bet 100% of the time in this spot.

Hmm... maybe you're thinking that he's equally likely to have started with 555 as he is the other two aces? If these are the only two possibilities in his range, then giving a free draw to a gutshot wheel is a small price to pay to avoid getting raised the other half of the time when he's rolled up. You couldn't just bet and fold to a raise because you have outs to fill up.

Could he have pocket kings? If he thinks you're steaming, him three-betting third after a loose jack reraises you is plausible.

If he would make this play with any of the three hands, then 75% of the time he'd have kings and 2 outs left. The other 25% would be split between aces, with 4 wheel outs, and fives, where he's way ahead.

Doing some quick math, it looks like betting against fives costs you almost one bet (you would still have outs, and will win ~10%), betting against aces saves you almost a bet (his 4 outs = ~10% equity, discounting your redraw, plus your payoff bet on the end), and betting against kings saves you a little under half a bet.

Ay, this is giving me a headache. It looks like, if he could only have AA or 55, checking and betting both have very close to the same expectation. So then, the more likely he is to make this play with kings, the more correct it is to bet and protect your hand.

I'd still just bet out without too much thought though. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[stuey_thekid]

The possibility that he was rolled with 5's but chose not to drop the hammer on either 4th OR 5th is pretty remote. Playing a simple pair of 5's with an Ace kicker that strongly against a show of strength from both a Jack and an Ace (which would now leave the possibility of only 4 outs to a winner) is also suspect. Buried Kings initially unsure whether you were tilting, bluffing, raising a big three-flush, or actually had the goods seems likely. He continues likely due to uncertainty and/or the desire to catch a second pair/set to your hopefully unimproved overpair. You have a huge edge against any of his likely hands on 6th while he likely still has a few draw outs to pull the rug out from under you. I wouldn't want to give a free opportunity to steal a decent-sized pot (especially considering the recent losses). I would bet in about a nanosecond or so.