return of BSP picks, 5-1 ytd

[NajdorfDefense]

Everyone is on O51 on the Colts game. I mean Peyton, at home, indoors, LJ, the colts run D is nonexistent, it's going to be like 35-31, minimum, right?
BSPs on Over, so we're on under 51. Open was O50.

As ugly as that looks, it feels right because it's so hard to make that bet given the Colts ability to score and not play D at all.

[niss]

I read somewhere earlier this year that, going into this season, the last 11 O/U of 50 or higher were 10-1 under. If I recall correctly, there were 2 O/U numbers this year of 50 or higher, and both were unders.

Edit -- also, a case can be made for the under if you have any faith in KC, as their game plan has to be to control the ball and keep the Indy offense off the field.

[NajdorfDefense]

I think that's exactly right. In fact, Indy may run the ball more to keep LJ off the field [and their own D!] figuring when it gets near the end they can score faster than KC.

Or Dungy may come up with his usual putrid game plan.

[paperchamp]

It seems like the biggesr BSP pick this week is the Jets. I haven't met a single person who doesn't like the Jets. I'm taking NE -8.5.

[MyTurn2Raise]

One of the chaps on ESPN today was predicting a Patriots blowout in this game. He was quite certain and made some decent arguments. My NFL model is a slight Pats lean. I'm looking into betting the alternative line. But, I am teh suck at NFL, so I'll just bet small.

Najdorf,
ty as always for the BSP. You are doing quite well in Natedogg's footsteps. [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[NajdorfDefense]

one of my close, rich friends who is a textbook square just asked me to put 4 units on the over for him. classic.
NE is not a anti-bsp play, too many NYers and NJers taking the 9 pts.

[crockpot]

[ QUOTE ]
One of the chaps on ESPN today was predicting a Patriots blowout in this game. He was quite certain and made some decent arguments.

[/ QUOTE ]

just so no one thinks too highly of the espn guys, on the same program they explained that it would be a bad game for LJ if he finished with two carries for 160 yards and two TDs, as he wouldn't have gotten enough touches for KC to win.

[sanmarcosrun1]

That comment actually makes sense. Indys best defense has always been their offense. The less it is on the field the less likely they are to win. Hence espn's point that LJ and KC need lots of carries to keep Colts O of the field.

[MrDannimal]

Well, it wouldn't be a bad game for LJ (unless he got hurt after celebrating his 2nd 80-yard TD run), but it'd be bad for the Chiefs, which is what I'd bet was the point.

And that much is true.

[DeezNuts]

[ QUOTE ]
Everyone is on O51 on the Colts game. I mean Peyton, at home, indoors, LJ, the colts run D is nonexistent, it's going to be like 35-31, minimum, right?
BSPs on Over, so we're on under 51. Open was O50.

As ugly as that looks, it feels right because it's so hard to make that bet given the Colts ability to score and not play D at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like it, as well as the under on ALL games this wknd. Put me down for 2 units!

DN