50 Stud Hi: AA vs Ted Forrest

blumpkin · #1 10-22-2007, 08:57 PM

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I assume this game was online?

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Yes, FTP.

Micturition Man · #2 10-23-2007, 12:37 AM

Feels a lot like (JT)Q to me.

Ted likes to slowplay which makes QQQ possible but I think most people would raise 4th with roll-ups to represent QJT or just raise 5th to represent two pair.

Buried AA is also possible.

I think he would tend to complete or fold buried TT but I guess that's possible too.

I think I would 3-bet because I feel a check behind coming on 7th but going passive seems reasonable too.

I also think a huge laydown on the river is possible depending on what happens after you 3-bet 6th.

Sevenfold · #3 10-23-2007, 01:29 AM

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I have not seen him get out of line at any point except perhaps preflop at holdem.

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This is key for me.

If he had/made a set, he waited for you to blank on hearts and aces to raise.

Were the Kc Jc 8c clean?

I hate check/calling, but I'd do that here.

SGspecial · #4 10-23-2007, 09:30 AM

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Feels a lot like (JT)Q to me.

Ted likes to slowplay which makes QQQ possible but I think most people would raise 4th with roll-ups to represent QJT or just raise 5th to represent two pair.

Buried AA is also possible.

I think he would tend to complete or fold buried TT but I guess that's possible too.

I think I would 3-bet because I feel a check behind coming on 7th but going passive seems reasonable too.

I also think a huge laydown on the river is possible depending on what happens after you 3-bet 6th.

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I would think his range on 3rd is a lot narrower than this (buried AA??) If he's got rolled Q's, then here have my money Ted just give me a chance to win it back. It's an aggro 4-handed game and I'm sure he expected blumpkin to complete with the A door card 100% of the time if he limps. I think a 3-card broadway hand would complete 3rd every time in his spot (tho I don't play stud with these guys or at this level). I think QJ and QT are the most likely hole cards, both of which you are currently beating. Problem is given your board a 3-bet on 6th turns over your hand (or at least he will put you on most likely A's up) and allows him to play perfectly against you. Don't give the guy with the Ted Forrest mask any advantage.

p.s. Ted's FTP handle = ??

blumpkin · #5 10-23-2007, 11:15 AM

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p.s. Ted's FTP handle = ??

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profbackwards

Micturition Man · #6 10-23-2007, 08:32 PM

I didn't catch it was 4-handed, just assumed ring.

I now think he's rolled up actually. He would make that ridiculously obvious a play imo, and I think he would just open-complete any weaker holding.

blumpkin · #7 10-23-2007, 11:30 PM

I'm surprised that it seems the consensus is to just call down, fearing trips or a goofy straight. While I agree with Howmany that he will often value-bet his two pair hands on the river anyway, it seems like just calling is just too weak. For example, if he checks behind on the river but would have called down all the way if I 3-bet, I could lose up to 2 bets. It also might cause him to be more aggressive on the big streets in later hands if he sees that I won't even 3-bet with my strong holding.

On the other hand, I would truly be sick if he capped 6th street, which he would probably do with anything that beats my hand. But what is the likelihood of that? Isn't it textbook to wait until 6th to raise with two pair to make sure that a possible bigger pair doesn't make an open pair? If we suppose he will raise with two pair, trips, a straight, and a few semibluffs thrown in, can we analyze the situation a little more?

Perhaps a solution would be to just call the raise and then either bet out or check/raise the river. One thing that appeals to me about check/raising the river is that is unlikely to 3-bet no matter what he has (notice I could have hit a heart flush, for example). And we all know that few players make big laydowns to river check/raises, even top players like Ted.

blumpkin · #8 10-24-2007, 04:36 PM

I thought for a second and, even though I didn't think he would limp with Queens, decided that he probably has some two pair hand. So I 3-bet and he just called (phew). I bet the river and he called. He had in fact limped with split Queens and made Queens up.

Thanks for the responses; more comments welcome.

SGspecial · #9 10-24-2007, 05:43 PM

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I thought for a second and, even though I didn't think he would limp with Queens, decided that he probably has some two pair hand. So I 3-bet and he just called (phew). I bet the river and he called. He had in fact limped with split Queens and made Queens up.

Thanks for the responses; more comments welcome.

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Did he have the straight draw to go with it? vnh btw