KK facing some action

Poseidon65 · #1 08-23-2007, 02:21 AM

Thoughts on this hand? My first thought is that I don't like the flop; in this situation I feel like AA and QQ are a decent part of his range, now QQ has me crushed.

My read is very minimal here; this is only his 6th hand at the table; he raised pre-flop in 2 of the last 5 hands.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $21.25
BB: $31.40
UTG: $43.55
MP: $32.45
CO: $7.25
Hero (BTN): $46.45

Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG raises to $1.75, 2 folds, Hero raises to $4.50, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.75

Flop: ($9.75) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG bets $3.25, Hero raises to $11.00, UTG calls $7.75

Turn: ($31.75) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG bets all-in for $28.05

Pot Size: $59.80

drsmooth · #2 08-23-2007, 02:38 AM

That sucks, but readless I would be very tempted to fold, all you beat is AQ (and maybe a flush draw..), and I think villain probably has a good idea of what you have. I don't play NL50 though

DaycareInferno · #3 08-23-2007, 02:44 AM

i'm not folding here. no way you're beat over 2/3 of the time.

Poseidon65 · #4 08-23-2007, 02:48 AM

According to pokerstove, if we put his range on AA, QQ and AQ only, we get the following, which looks pretty favorable. Obviously this assumes he plays all three hands the same way.

I also feel like broadway clubs is part of his range here.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

26,845,173 games 12.578 secs 2,134,295 games/sec

Board: Qc 2c 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.284% 48.28% 00.00% 12961794 0.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 51.716% 51.72% 00.00% 13883379 0.00 { AA, QQ, AQs, AQo }

drsmooth · #5 08-23-2007, 02:59 AM

Well that is about the tightest range possible so I guess the call is correct. My earlier thought assumed AQ was less likely given action but that is probably wrong.

oliverm · #6 08-23-2007, 03:05 AM

2 in 5 preflop raises (I presume this is the 3rd in 6) suggest he does this light. AA should have reraised, so discount that. The amount of times you are behind to QQ, 33, and 22 MORE than makes up for the amount of times he's doing this with air, Qx, flush and straight draws.
I would have been more cautious had he checked the turn...
I'm happy villain has beaten us to the push and call.

I've pokerstoved an extended range;
Board: 3d Qc 2c 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.376% 70.38% 00.00% 16164 0.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 29.624% 29.62% 00.00% 6804 0.00 { AA, QQ, 66, 33-22, A2s+, KQs, QJs, AQo, KQo, QJo

Edit - actually disregard those ranges - It includes all suits not just clubs. I couldn't be bothered entering each club...

K䲰䮥n · #7 08-23-2007, 03:17 AM

Raise more on the flop. This is a very, very easy call.

Poseidon65 · #8 08-23-2007, 03:18 AM

Thanks for the thoughts guys, this looks like a clear-cut call. Here are the results:

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $21.25
BB: $31.40
UTG: $43.55
MP: $32.45
CO: $7.25
Hero (BTN): $46.45

Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG raises to $1.75, 2 folds, Hero raises to $4.50, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.75

Flop: ($9.75) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG bets $3.25, Hero raises to $11.00, UTG calls $7.75

Turn: ($31.75) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG bets all-in for $28.05, Hero calls $28.05

River: ($87.85) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In)

Pot Size: $87.85 ($3 Rake)

UTG had A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (Ace King high) and LOST (-$43.55)
Hero had K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (a pair of Kings) and WON (+$41.30)

Vedocorban · #9 08-23-2007, 03:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The amount of times you are behind to QQ, 33, and 22 MORE than makes up for the amount of times he's doing this with air, Qx, flush and straight draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see the math in this statement, or am I reading it wrong? If you're saying the -EV those times he has a set more than offsets the +EV vs the rest of his range, then you might want to study some hand distrubtion percentages (AQ combinations are dealt more often than QQ combinations, for example).

If you meant that the +EV instances where Hero is ahead more than offset the -EV instances where villain has AA or a set, then I wholeheartedly agree.

oliverm · #10 08-23-2007, 03:53 AM

sorry - didn't state that very well - I meant we are ahead more times than we are behind, and the whole situation is +ev.