NL 25 Big draw, call or fold

[TenFourOff]

You need to call $14 to win $22. You have $9-18 of implied odds if UTG comes along. You likely have 15 outs to win, and you are ahead of some of CO's range, i.e AQ, AJ, QQ, and TT. Nonetheless, while a call is not terrible here, I would fold. You are barely invested in the pot and a call is likely to be neutral to slightly negative EV assuming villan is not a complete maniac. You might as well save the variance and wait for a better place.

Also, I absolutely disagree with pushing. Most of the value from this hand comes from bringing UTG along and hitting your draw when both opponents are pot committed. You have no fold equity against CO and are losing value by folding out UTG.

[Romanis]

Isn't a 14$ call even more scary for MP than a push? Are there hands with which he calls the 14$ but folds to the push?

[JavaNut]

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Isn't a 14$ call even more scary for MP than a push? Are there hands with which he calls the 14$ but folds to the push?

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Don't think so either, he will be pot committed with a call of $14. MP won't call he will push or fold.

I can see the argument earlier that we should wait for a situation with a bigger edge to reduce varians. In a tournament it would have to be in a stage where the prize money is fairly even from one place to another and I would need to double up to make it to a higher prize level for me to push this. But in a cash game and if reloading is not the problem I would push.

[munkey]

Shove. His flop raise makes a shove < PSR.

We have a 'strange' but v.strong equity hand vs villan's range in that we have a made hand TP2k which is good vs his draws + we have 2nd nut fdraw and gutshot draw so ~ 9+4 outs so even vs a set we'll not too much of a dog.

We'll 60/40 vs flopped str8 and sets - and this is the worst scenario - we beat so much more including combo-draws.

Note: next time you flop top 2/set on similar board do the same -villan's won't know if you've got a big draw so have a hard decision and are more liekly to make mistakes.

Oh and I fold preflop HU vs unknown alot - will 3bet/call knowns.