$114 L7 bubble hand postflop

[Little John]

villian 19/16 125 hands, no notes. this is L7, bb=200 with 25 chip ante.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button (t2530)
SB (t945)
BB (t4235)
Hero (t5790)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t500</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls t300.

Flop: (t875) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t4800</font>

[Chipchucker5]

Ewww...I don't like it John. You're only getting called if you're roasted, and I think he'll just fold to a bet like 600 if he's got nothing.

[kleath]

I agree with the chucker, id be more down with this line if you had air than having tp.

[Scotty_12]

Really guys?

He cant call you without the nuts here, I dont see the problem... you could try and get fancy, vbbetting what is likely the best hand and trying to squeeze from him before ending it on the turn. This can be made difficult for you with a CRAI from villian on the flop, or the dealer can make it difficult if he throws up another diamond (or somehow improves BBs hand to one where he open pushes on teh turn, like if he has Ad Kx and turn is Ac or something , or if he ck/calls Ad 9x and turn is Ac or 9h)

[Chipchucker5]

[ QUOTE ]
Really guys?

He cant call you without the nuts here, I dont see the problem... you could try and get fancy, vbbetting what is likely the best hand and trying to squeeze from him before ending it on the turn. This can be made difficult for you with a CRAI from villian on the flop, or the dealer can make it difficult if he throws up another diamond (or somehow improves BBs hand to one where he open pushes on teh turn, like if he has Ad Kx and turn is Ac or something , or if he ck/calls Ad 9x and turn is Ac or 9h)

[/ QUOTE ]

The risk is not worth the reward IMO. Most people aren't folding better TP's and I believe that very few people are going to just make a play at us given our respective chip positions in the tourny. Just because people should be folding a lot of hands to a shove doesn't mean that they will.

[Scotty_12]

Should we not be thinking of it from the perspective of BB as well? The risk isnt worth the reward for him, especially if he has KT, KJ, KQ, AK TP w/o a diamond. With those hands, I would supect to be led into preflop, although maybe he would go for a c/r (which I think would be spew from his position.)

If we dont think he's going to make a play, I dont see why he would make a hero call with 4x the chips of shorty

He is 19/16, and I assumethat is unfiltered since John didnt specify - those are pretty tag stats, the kind of player that I think never felts here w/o a very strong hand - it can just get ugly if he flats and leads the turn, or ck/calls again on the turn, if the turn is a diamond(regardless of if he leads or not)

[Little John]

[ QUOTE ]
Should we not be thinking of it from the perspective of BB as well? The risk isnt worth the reward for him, especially if he has KT, KJ, KQ, AK TP w/o a diamond. With those hands, I would supect to be led into preflop, although maybe he would go for a c/r (which I think would be spew from his position.)

If we dont think he's going to make a play, I dont see why he would make a hero call with 4x the chips of shorty

He is 19/16, and I assumethat is unfiltered since John didnt specify - those are pretty tag stats, the kind of player that I think never felts here w/o a very strong hand - it can just get ugly if he flats and leads the turn, or ck/calls again on the turn, if the turn is a diamond(regardless of if he leads or not)

[/ QUOTE ]

those stats are filtered for 4-6 players

[Scotty_12]

Ok so the guy is playing way tighter than optimal shorthanded, although that sample size can mean nothing

I dont hate a shove or a 600-900 bet, I just think that the hand can really get [censored] up if he ck/calls flop, and our hand turns into a bluff, or a hope that he doesnt have a flush and will stop drawing to one. He will nevershow up with a weaker king in a raised pot, if he flatted KQ/KJ/KT (maybe AK?) is his line really goign to be check/call? Would he look us up preflop with A9 (Ad 9x) and call the flop?

[darinvg]

Standard c-bet seems better to me.