Dr. Bob NCAA Writeups

[kdog]

3 Star Selection
***OHIO (-7.5) 36 Temple 17
04:00 PM Pacific, 02-Nov-07
Temple has won 3 straight conference games after starting the season with 5 losses, but the Owls are now without starting quarterback Adam DiMichele, who was injured in the Owls’ win over Miami-Ohio and is lost for the season. Backup Vaughn Charlton did a decent job off the bench in that game but there is plenty of evidence that Vaughn is not nearly the quarterback that DiMichele is. Charlton has averaged just 3.4 yards per pass play on 120 career pass plays (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback, and he is 2.1 yppp worse than average on his 21 pass plays this season. DiMichele, meanwhile, has averaged 5.8 yppp this season against teams that would allow 6.9 yppp to an average quarterback. Temple’s offense is 0.9 yards per play worse than average for the season (5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) and they’re likely to be worse than that with Charlton at quarterback as he was 1.2 yppp worse than DiMichele last season and 1.0 yppp worse than DiMichele in limited action this season. Ohio’s defense has been 0.7 yppl worse than average this season, so the Bobcats would have an advantage against the Owls’ offense even if DiMichele were healthy. Ohio also has an advantage on the other side of the ball, as the Bobcats are just 0.3 yppl worse than average offensively (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) while Temple has been 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively. The Bobcats are more dynamic offensively with freshman quarterback Theo Scott having taken over for Brad Bower. Scott got his first start last week and led the Bobcats to 6.3 yppl and 38 points against a Bowling Green defense that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team. Scott’s passing numbers (92 pass plays) haven’t been quite as good as Bower’s, but his running (169 yards on 28 running plays) adds to the rushing attack and makes the Bobcats tougher to prepare for. Overall, I rate the Ohio offense about the same as there season average with Scott at the helm, but there is plenty of potential for improvement based on last week’s good offensive showing. Aside from having edges on both sides of the ball, the Bobcats also have great special teams while Temple’s special teams have been poor. My math model favors Ohio by 17 points (it would have been 15 points with DiMichele at QB for Temple) and Temple applies to a negative 61-141-1 ATS letdown situation. I’ll take Ohio in a 3-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less, for 4-Stars at -7 points or less (at - 1.15 odds or better) and for 2-Stars from -10 ½ to -12 points.




3 Star Selection
***PENN ST. (-7.0) 35 Purdue 18
09:00 AM Pacific, 03-Nov-07
Penn State is not in the same class as #1 Ohio State, but the Nittany Lions should easily beat a mediocre and overrated Purdue team that has been destroyed by good teams. All 7 of Purdue’s victories are against mediocre or bad teams and the Boilermakers were beaten soundly by the two good teams that they’ve faced, losing at home 7-23 to Ohio State and 21-48 at Michigan. Penn State didn’t look good against Ohio State either, but the Lions were competitive in their 9-14 loss at Michigan and out-gained the Wolverines 4.6 yards per play to 4.1 yppl while Purdue was out-gained by Michigan 4.1 yppl to 6.3 yppl. Purdue built up their good offensive stats early in the season against bad teams, but the Boilermakers are just average offensively (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and only 0.2 yppl better than average defensively (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average only 5.1 yppl against an average team). Penn State, meanwhile, is 0.3 yppl better than average offensively (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and the Nittany Lions are 0.8 yppl better than average defensively after excluding the yards that their backup defense gave up to Buffalo after the starters were pulled with a big lead. So, Penn State has a slight edge when they have the ball and a huge edge with their stout defense against Purdue’s mediocre offense. Penn State also has an advantage in special teams and the Nittany Lions apply to a very strong 31-4 ATS subset of an 82-32-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator – and Penn State is 18-8- 1 ATS in their last 27 home games (4-2 ATS this season). My math model gives Penn State a 61% chance of covering at -7 points and the strong statistical indicator adds to that percentage. I’ll take Penn State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and for 2- Stars from -7 ½ to -10 points.



2 Star Selection
**ARKANSAS (-4.5) 32 South Carolina 19
05:00 PM Pacific, 03-Nov-07
Arkansas is coming off an easy 58-10 warm-up win over Florida International while South Carolina is in turmoil after losing two straight games and shuffling quarterbacks once again. Steve Spurrier is turning to senior Blake Mitchell this week after Mitchell came off the bench to throw for 290 yards on 45 passes last week. However, that 6.4 yards per pass play that Mitchell averaged last week isn’t all that good considering that Tennessee would allow an average quarterback to throw for 6.7 yppp against them at home. South Carolina has been 0.3 yppp worse than average for the season (5.7 yppp against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average team) and Mitchell has actually been worse than that on his 140 pass plays this season – averaging just 5.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp. I’m not going to adjust downward based on Mitchell’s stats because the more effective Chris Smelley will probably come off the bench if Mitchell struggles. Both South Carolina quarterbacks will likely struggle against an Arkansas defense that has allowed just 4.4 yppp this season (to teams that would average 5.5 yppp against an average defense). Overall, South Carolina is just average offensively while Arkansas is 0.5 yards per play better than average on defense. The best thing about South Carolina is their pass defense (4.3 yppp allowed to teams that would average 6.1 yppp), but Arkansas won’t need to throw the ball much given that their rushing attack is so good (298 yards per game at 6.4 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp) and that the Gamecocks are only 0.2 yprp better than average defending the run. Overall Arkansas is 0.7 yppl better than average on offense while South Carolina is 0.9 ypppl better than average on defense – but the Gamecocks’ normal advantage on defense (pass defense) won’t benefit them today nearly as much as it normally does. My math model favors Arkansas by 10 ½ points in this game and the Razorbacks qualify in a very good 49-9-1 ATS subset of a 127-53-3 ATS home momentum situation. South Carolina has been good on the road under Steve Spurrier (10-3 ATS), but South Carolina has played only 1 point better on the road than they have overall this season (after adjusting for strength of opponent and the fact that they’re on the road, of course). Arkansas hasn’t beaten a good team all season, but the Hogs out-gained Alabama, Kentucky, and Auburn (their 3 losses) by an average of 5.5 yppl to 5.1 yppl – so it’s not like they’ve played poorly in those games. However, I’ll resist making Arkansas a 3-Star Best Bet as I probably should based on my math and the strong situation. I’ll take Arkansas in a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 3-Stars at -3 points or less.




Strong Opinion
Kansas St. (-14.0) 37 IOWA ST. 17
09:30 AM Pacific, 03-Nov-07
Kansas State is 6-1 ATS this season with their only spread loss coming against a Kansas team that is a perfect 7-0 ATS. The Wildcats still appear to be underrated and they are likely to beat the Cyclones pretty handily today. Kansas State has a good offense that has averaged 5.8 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl against an average team and they have the edge over a mediocre Iowa State defense that is just 0.1 yppl better than average. Kansas State’s real advantage in this game is when the Cyclones have the ball, as Iowa State is 1.0 yppl worse than average on offense (4.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) while the Wildcats are 0.6 yppl better than average defensively (4.9 yppl against teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team). Kansas State also has the nation’s best special teams this year while Iowa State is horrible in special teams, so expect the Wildcats to score at least one touchdown or set up an easy score with their special teams. My math model favors Kansas State by 20 ½ points and I’ll consider Kansas State a Strong Opinion at - 14 points or less and I’ll make Kansas State a 2-Star Best Bet at -13 points or less.

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Strong Opinion
Navy 29 NOTRE DAME (-3.5) 27
11:30 AM Pacific, 03-Nov-07
Notre Dame has beaten Navy 43 consecutive times, but the Irish have never been this bad. This game will come down to Notre Dame’s national worst passing attack against Navy’s national worst pass defense. The Irish have averaged a pathetic 3.2 yards per pass play and only 3.1 yards per play this season (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppp and 4.8 yppl to an average team), but they actually have a chance to move the ball through the air in this game with Navy allowing a horrendous 9.1 yppp to teams that would average 5.9 yppp against an average defensive team. Current Irish quarterback Evan Sharpley has been the best of Notre Dame’s quarterbacks, but he still has been 1.9 yppp worse than average (3.7 yppp against teams that would allow 5.6 yppp to an average QB). Sharpley actually should post better than average passing numbers in this game given that Navy’s defense has been 3.2 yppp worse than average. That does not necessarily mean that Notre Dame is going to win since they still have a horrible rushing attack and Navy’s good option running attack (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl) is going to move the ball well against a Notre Dame defense that is just barely better than average defending the run (5.1 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yprp against an average team). My math model favors Navy by 2 points in this game and Notre Dame applies to a negative 16-48 ATS situation. Navy, meanwhile, is 74-34-1 ATS in regular season games played away from home, including 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games in South Bend. Navy also tends to beat the teams that they are capable of beating, as they are 20- 7 ATS since 2003 when facing a team with a losing record, including 11-0 ATS if they are not favored by more than 7 points in those games (10-1 straight up). Normally I’d be playing Navy in this game as a Best Bet but there is some uncertainty on how well Notre Dame’s horrible pass attack will perform against Navy’s horrible pass defense since Navy has not faced a team nearly as bad as Notre Dame on offense and Notre Dame has not faced a defensive unit nearly as bad as Navy’s. I’ll consider Navy a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.



Strong Opinion
Texas El Paso (-7.5) 44 RICE 30
12:00 PM Pacific, 03-Nov-07
I’ve gone against Rice for 4 consecutive weeks and after getting lucky with turnovers against Southern Miss (7 S. Miss turnovers) and Houston (5 Houston turnovers and covered despite being out-gained by over 300 yards) the Owls haven’t been so fortunate in not covering against Memphis and Marshall. Now it’s UTEP’s turn to beat up on Rice. The Miners’ above average offense (6.3 yards per play with their starting unit in against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) will feast on a horrible Rice defense that’s allowed 6.8 yppl to teams that would average only 5.3 yppl against an average defensive unit. UTEP has scored 48 points or more in their last 3 games against horrible defensive teams (Texas Southern, SMU, and Tulsa) and only Texas Southern has a defense as bad as Rice. Rice has averaged only 4.8 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) but the Owls are only 0.5 yppl worse than average since their pathetic offensive display in their opening home loss to Nicholls State. UTEP is 0.9 yppl worse than average defensively, but Rice has only a 0.4 yppl advantage when their offense is on the field while the Miners have a 1.9 yppl advantage and should score on most of their possessions. UTEP quarterbacks have only thrown 5 interceptions in 5 games and the only 2 times Rice has covered in 8 games is when they got 5 or more turnovers, which isn’t likely to happen in this game. My math model favors UTEP by 14 ½ points and I’ll take UTEP in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less (strong opinion up to -9 points).



Strong Opinion
UL Lafayette 23 TENNESSEE (-28.5) 46
01:00 PM Pacific, 03-Nov-07
It will be tough for Tennessee to get up for this non-conference affair as a huge favorite after their hard fought overtime win over SEC rival South Carolina last week and with Arkansas coming to Knoxville next week. Non conference home favorites of more than 21 points are just 19-40-3 ATS against losing teams if the big home favorite won and covered the previous week in a game in which they were favored by 7 points or less or getting points (i.e. a big non-conference home favorite after winning a tough game). Meanwhile, Lafayette is the type of team that has a good chance of covering as a big underdog since they run the ball so well. Good running teams make good big dogs because they can move the ball with less risk of turnovers while also running the clock more than passing teams. UL Lafayette applies to an 82-39-5 ATS big underdog statistical profile indicator that plays on good running teams as big dogs and the Ragin’ Cajuns certainly shouldn’t have trouble moving the ball on the ground in this game. Lafayette averages 252 yards on the ground per game at 6.1 yards per rushing play (against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.1 yprp to an average team) while Tennessee is just mediocre defending the run (5.0 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yprp against an average team). Tennessee is going to score plenty of points against Lafayette’s bad defense, but Lafayette should score enough to stay within the big line and the Vols aren’t likely to be fully focused on this game. My math model favors Tennessee by just 26 points and Lafayette is already 2-0 ATS this season as an underdog of more than 21 points, including a 14 point loss at South Carolina as a 28 ½ point dog in which the Cajuns ran for 254 yards at 5.5 yprp. I’ll consider UL Lafayette a Strong Opinion at +28 points or more and as a 2-Star Best Bet if the line goes back up to +31 or more.



Strong Opinion
TOLEDO (-7.5) 38 Eastern Mich 24
04:00 PM Pacific, 03-Nov-07
Toledo is coming off a 70-21 home thrashing of Northern Illinois last week (the Rockets were favored by just 3 ½ points) and that win sets up the Rockets in a very good 83-24-3 ATS home momentum situation this week. Eastern Michigan, meanwhile, is coming off a 19-2 upset win over Western Michigan in which they were +5 in turnover margin. The Eagles actually out-played the Broncos in that game, but that win sets them up in a very negative 17-62 ATS road letdown situation today. Toledo has covered the last two weeks at home and the Rockets are now 28-8 ATS at home when not favored by 28 points or more. The problem with making Toledo a Best Bet is that the line has been over-inflated based on last week’s impressive showing by the Rockets. My math model favors Toledo by only 5 ½ points and while the situations give the Rockets a 63.7% chance of covering at a fair line the chance of covering at -8 points is only 55.5%, which is not good enough to make this game a Best Bet. I’ll consider Toledo a Strong Opinion at -9 or less (54.3% cover at -9) and I’d only play Toledo as a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less (59.2% at 7, but 56.2% at -7 ½).

dr bob

[Nostrawho?]

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Notre Dame has beaten Navy 43 consecutive times, but the Irish have never been this bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not that I disagree, but this statement alone makes me sick being on the same side as bob. Well really this season I feel sick in any game we are on the same side.

[internetdonk]

Time to fade Roberts picks

[aufan91]

Uh...take South Carolina in that game IMO.

[Schwatt]

GD I was waiting to take Penn St. in hopes that -7 would briefly fall to -6.5, if not I was gonna take the -7.

Maybe it's a good thing though, now that Dr. Boob has given them the kiss of death.

[Schwatt]

[ QUOTE ]
Uh...take South Carolina in that game when it hits +7 IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

[MyTurn2Raise]

wowza...I agree with Boob on everything but the gamec0cks this week

[kdog]

[ QUOTE ]
wowza...I agree with Boob on everything but the gamec0cks this week

[/ QUOTE ]

Well he's due for a good week. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[CardSharpCook]

I had arkansas for that game. Enough to make it a bet for me. However, did not make the bet due to some Ark injury - don't remember what it was.

[iggymcfly]

Dr. Bob did have his first winning week in quite a while after the E-60 feature last week. If he actually was giving the wrong side of his picks to fade the line moves, this would be the perfect time to switch.