Playing a draw on the turn for EV=1.5BB, impact on metagame?

Adrian20XX · #1 11-22-2007, 10:09 AM

Hi,

I've played a draw on the turn for EV=1.5BB, almost zero on this particular hand (HAND 1), but I wonder how does playing an EV=0 draw can be EV+ or EV- for the next hands.

A few impacts I think this can have:
* I expand my hand range, so I think this is a plus as it is more difficult for players to put me on a hand.
* The first hand was defending my big blind, so players might attack less my blinds with marginal hands. I think this is a plus.
* A few players might notice that you chase for propper odds, so they will not pay you when they gave you monster odds (HAND 2 is an example of the types of hands they can give up, where my EV=6BBs). I think this is negative.
* Players might want to protect their hands even more, so they will bet very very hard, so in this spot we can make them pay our nuts with things like TPTK.
* If we are EV=0 as in this case counting the rake, the other player is EV negative because of the rake. So, we make him play bad and we are happy for this, but the player loses money to the rake and not to us.

So the questions are:
* What do you think is the EV impact for future hands?
* How do you expect your opponents to adjust their games
* How should we adjust our game to the adjustments we expect from our opponents?

TIA & Regards ...

HAND 1

I call $6.50 to win $42.80-$6.50-$12.70=$23.60
So I needed to have $6.50 / ($6.50+$23.60) = 21,5947% equity
I had 10/44 = 22,7273% equity

So the EV of this call is 22,7273% * $23,60 - (1-22,7273%) * 6.50 = $0,340909091 = 1.5BB

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG+1 ($24.15)
MP1 ($9.75)
MP2 ($22.45)
CO ($31.90)
Button ($7)
SB ($25.30)
Hero ($25)
UTG ($13.95)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 raises to $1.25, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.

Flop: ($2.60) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $2, Hero calls $2.

Turn: ($6.60) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $6.5, Hero calls $6.50.

River: ($19.60) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $12, MP2 raises to $12.7, Hero calls $0.69.

Final Pot: $45

Results:
Hero has 4c 3c (flush, ace high).
MP2 has Qd Qc (three of a kind, queens).
Outcome: Hero wins $45, rake $2.20, Net win $42.80.

HAND 2
Here I call $2.75 to win $46.70-$2.75-$19.55=$24.4
My Equity is 7/44=15,9091%
So the EV of this call is 1,5693=6BBs

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

Button ($30.90)
SB ($4.10)
BB ($13.20)
UTG ($25.70)
UTG+1 ($26.05)
MP1 ($24.05)
MP2 ($5.25)
Hero ($29.90)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.75, 1 fold, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold.

Flop: ($2.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 bets $1, Hero calls $1, SB folds.

Turn: ($4.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 bets $2.75, Hero calls $2.75.

River: ($10) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 bets $4, Hero raises to $11, MP1 raises to $19.55, Hero calls $8.55.

Final Pot: $49.10

Results:
MP1 has Ah Ac (three of a kind, aces).
Hero has 6d 8d (flush, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins $49.10, rake $2.40, Net Win $46.70.

AllTheCheese · #2 11-22-2007, 10:34 AM

Play more aggressively. Calling five big blinds with 4 high out of position and not pumping this mega-gin flop is weak.

* What do you think is the EV impact for future hands?
Don't know what that means.

* How do you expect your opponents to adjust their games
I don't expect $25NL players to be that perceptive. Most players that possess the capability of being that perceptive are playing so many tables that hands like these will remain mostly unnoticed.

* How should we adjust our game to the adjustments we expect from our opponents?
Again, see above.

WantToLearn · #3 11-22-2007, 10:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]

HAND 1

I had 10/44 = 22,7273% equity

[/ QUOTE ]

I don´t understand this. There´s 46 cards you don´t know when calling the turn - it doesn´t matter wether a card is in his pocket cards or in the deck.

When calling, you also don´t know what he has. Allthough he surely doesn´t play as if he is trying to see cards for cheap, don´t take it for granted that a small flush will win. Plus there´s negative implied odds working against you, as you are certainly not going to give in without any resistance should a flush card pair the board? So, sometimes you will hit and pay off his boat, at least up to a certain degree.

Also, both hands are preflop folds against at least against all but the most postflop-super-loose-super-passiv players. No offence, but have you been doing this for a long time?
If so, it would be very nice if you could check your database (poker tracker or whatever). I´m honestly interested if playing those hand in your style makes any money - but I guess not.

EDIT: seeing that there are players behind you still to act, these are preflop folds at all times against a raise before you IMO.

Adrian20XX · #4 11-22-2007, 11:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Play more aggressively. Calling five big blinds with 4 high out of position and not pumping this mega-gin flop is weak.

[/ QUOTE ]

In this case he had a set of Queens, he is not folding. Do you think the EV that we gain from having him to fold A7s is bigger than the EV that we lose against the sets, two pairs, and AKs that call?

[ QUOTE ]
* What do you think is the EV impact for future hands?
Don't know what that means.

* How do you expect your opponents to adjust their games
I don't expect $25NL players to be that perceptive. Most players that possess the capability of being that perceptive are playing so many tables that hands like these will remain mostly unnoticed.

* How should we adjust our game to the adjustments we expect from our opponents?
Again, see above.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought about this, we at are NL25 are all donks, so players do not adjust. But what other games? How will they adjust?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

HAND 1

I had 10/44 = 22,7273% equity

[/ QUOTE ]

I don´t understand this. There´s 46 cards you don´t know when calling the turn - it doesn´t matter wether a card is in his pocket cards or in the deck.

When calling, you also don´t know what he has. Allthough he surely doesn´t play as if he is trying to see cards for cheap, don´t take it for granted that a small flush will win. Plus there´s negative implied odds working against you, as you are certainly not going to give in without any resistance should a flush card pair the board? So, sometimes you will hit and pay off his boat, at least up to a certain degree.

Also, both hands are preflop folds against at least against all but the most postflop-super-loose-super-passiv players. No offence, but have you been doing this for a long time?
If so, it would be very nice if you could check your database (poker tracker or whatever). I´m honestly interested if playing those hand in your style makes any money - but I guess not.

EDIT: seeing that there are players behind you still to act, these are preflop folds at all times against a raise before you IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

On both hands the Ace high flush is not possible, as the relevant ace is on the table, so I feel more confident playing this low flushes.

On the first hand, the player was betting big and big, so I figured he had a monster. On the second hand, he was begging for me to call by betting small, and I couldn't refuse :-)

But still, both hands were EV+ as played, without considering the negative implied odds that you certainly point out.

First hand might become EV- for the negative odds, but the second hand is stll EV+ in my opinion (have to do the math).

I have recently re-installed my computer so PokerTracker is still not installed (have to get a new code), but I still don't know how usefull it will be because I've been moving up fast in stakes recently starting from 0.01/0.02, every single stake until 0.25/0.50 where I am today. Will try to do this when I install PokerTracker again.

Regards ...

WantToLearn · #5 11-22-2007, 12:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]

First hand might become EV- for the negative odds, but the second hand is stll EV+ in my opinion (have to do the math).

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I completely misunderstand your calculation. I have gone through your maths again.

It seems to me you assume you get his complete stack in the middle everytime you make your hand?

If so, don´t do this. Even a player w/ a very strong hand might stop when a flush card hits.

RapidEvolution · #6 11-22-2007, 12:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hi,

I've played a draw on the turn for EV=1.5BB, almost zero on this particular hand (HAND 1), but I wonder how does playing an EV=0 draw can be EV+ or EV- for the next hands.

A few impacts I think this can have:
* I expand my hand range, so I think this is a plus as it is more difficult for players to put me on a hand.
* The first hand was defending my big blind, so players might attack less my blinds with marginal hands. I think this is a plus.
* A few players might notice that you chase for propper odds, so they will not pay you when they gave you monster odds (HAND 2 is an example of the types of hands they can give up, where my EV=6BBs). I think this is negative.
* Players might want to protect their hands even more, so they will bet very very hard, so in this spot we can make them pay our nuts with things like TPTK.
* If we are EV=0 as in this case counting the rake, the other player is EV negative because of the rake. So, we make him play bad and we are happy for this, but the player loses money to the rake and not to us.

So the questions are:
* What do you think is the EV impact for future hands?
* How do you expect your opponents to adjust their games
* How should we adjust our game to the adjustments we expect from our opponents?

TIA & Regards ...

HAND 1

I call $6.50 to win $42.80-$6.50-$12.70=$23.60
So I needed to have $6.50 / ($6.50+$23.60) = 21,5947% equity
I had 10/44 = 22,7273% equity

So the EV of this call is 22,7273% * $23,60 - (1-22,7273%) * 6.50 = $0,340909091 = 1.5BB

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG+1 ($24.15)
MP1 ($9.75)
MP2 ($22.45)
CO ($31.90)
Button ($7)
SB ($25.30)
Hero ($25)
UTG ($13.95)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 raises to $1.25, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.

Flop: ($2.60) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $2, Hero calls $2.

Turn: ($6.60) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $6.5, Hero calls $6.50.

River: ($19.60) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $12, MP2 raises to $12.7, Hero calls $0.69.

Final Pot: $45

Results:
Hero has 4c 3c (flush, ace high).
MP2 has Qd Qc (three of a kind, queens).
Outcome: Hero wins $45, rake $2.20, Net win $42.80.

HAND 2
Here I call $2.75 to win $46.70-$2.75-$19.55=$24.4
My Equity is 7/44=15,9091%
So the EV of this call is 1,5693=6BBs

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

Button ($30.90)
SB ($4.10)
BB ($13.20)
UTG ($25.70)
UTG+1 ($26.05)
MP1 ($24.05)
MP2 ($5.25)
Hero ($29.90)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.75, 1 fold, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold.

Flop: ($2.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 bets $1, Hero calls $1, SB folds.

Turn: ($4.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 bets $2.75, Hero calls $2.75.

River: ($10) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 bets $4, Hero raises to $11, MP1 raises to $19.55, Hero calls $8.55.

Final Pot: $49.10

Results:
MP1 has Ah Ac (three of a kind, aces).
Hero has 6d 8d (flush, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins $49.10, rake $2.40, Net Win $46.70.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless you have a read that the villain is paying attention (in this case, meticulous attention), then the impact is probably non-existent. For hand 1, I think that the river lead after 3 streets of passive play is going to arouse suspicion and you may want to adjust your implied odds, based on that. On this board, it matters less, because most of villain's range here consists of 2pairs and sets (or an overly aggressive AK), but in general, this kind of line WILL fold out weaker hands.

In hand 2, it's the same deal. MP1 is awful here and gives you odds, pretty much the whole way. (I'm curious as to whether you'd take the same line if villain was potting the flop and turn). Again, on the river, you suddenly shift to aggro and villain (foolishly, IMO) reraises you. In the first hand, it mattered less since there was so little behind, but here, a smart villain is only going to call you here.

Are these regulars that you're playing against in these hands?

novel20 · #7 11-22-2007, 01:37 PM

Your EV calculations are wrong. NL 25 is very simple and easy, so don't worry about metagame.

ship_it_trebek · #8 11-22-2007, 02:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
NL 25 is very simple and easy, so don't worry about metagame.

[/ QUOTE ]