Stud/8 Touney Hand - River bluff?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Foxwoods $45 + 15 Stud/8 MTT. 50 started, 5 places paid. 9 left, my table has 4 players.

600/1200/a100

I have 5200, villain in this is chip leader with about 12000 (older woman, regular at FW)

Villain (xx)(xx) 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Seat 4 (xx)(xx) T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Seat 6 (xx)(xx) 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero (A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villain brings it in fo 200, 2 folds, I complete, villain calls (1400)

4th street

Villain (xx)(xx) 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero (A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Check Check (1400)

5th street

Villain (xx)(xx) 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero (A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villain bets, I call. (3800)

6th street

Villain (xx)(xx) 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero (A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

check check (3800)

River

Villain (xx)(xx) 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (xx)
Hero (A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])

I'm watching her the whole way. She checks her river card and looks disgusted (not an obvious reverse tell) and checks. I look at my brick, back at her board and bet. She thinks for about 15 seconds and calls, saying "All I have are the jacks." [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

Bad move on my part?

[Bremen]

Probably not the best river bluff since in stud8 people will often bet just a low in this situation.

Definitly bet 4th though. I'd probably raise 5th myself as well.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Thanks. One thought I had looking back was that betting 6th when I caught the Q might have worked better.

[PoorLawyer]

I'm not a big stud8 player, but I think I like a bet on 4th. you both bricked but you have a 3 flush now to go with the 3 low. If you bet it may look like you completed with a big pair. Even if she calls, there is a good chance you are ahead in the hand. Then I think the hand plays easier and you can try to either bluff her off with the apparent flush on 5th or take the cheaper free card on 5th. I would probably be 5th with 4 to a wheel and a 4 flush.

I dunno, I could be way off here.

[jogumon]

[ QUOTE ]
One thought I had looking back was that betting 6th when I caught the Q might have worked better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of 4th, 5th and 6th, 6th is the one street you definitely shouldn't have bet. There's no point. What hand could you have the a queen helped? That card was a complete brick for you, and you're not going to convince her otherwise.

4th and 5th are where you should have been showing aggression. A bet on 4th almost certainly picks up the pot right there. If not, you still have a nice hand, compared to what she has.

On 5th, a raise has the slight possibility of winning right away, but more importantly, you've got a really good two way hand at this point, and I'd have no objections to getting as much money as I can into the pot here, with two cards to come. You have 4 to a wheel and an A high flush draw. She most likely has a pair of jacks and a 3 card low. Get your remaining chips in with the best of it.

[mscags]

I think you have to be fourth here, checking is giving up waaaaay to much

[Andy B]

Bet fourth. You've got two good three-card hands, and she's caught a pretty stinky card. You can expect to pick up the pot a pretty good percentage of the time, and if you don't, you're probably in pretty decent shape.

The river bluff probably isn't going to work often enough to be worthwhile in this small pot.