Hand Reading: Gussing Game

[Daniel LeClaire]

No way do you have a set or two pair. Your weak turn bet pretty much leads me to believe you have a weak Ace or flush draw. When you bet the river you don't have the weak Ace anymore. I put you on J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and villain is calling you with any Ace and some Queens.

[cubase]

Grunch.

You asked from the villian's perspective and you said the villian is a fish.

So this may seem trite, however, as a fish:

I'm calling you down with whatever Ax I raised with. I'm never folding AJ, and all my other aces (AK, AQ, are the nuts as far as I'm concerned).

I don't put you on anything, in fact, I don't even know how many opponents are playing.. I have freaking top pair baby... who cares what you have... I'll keep calling your bets... All I know is top pair is the nuts... I have enough trouble keeping track of my own hand, much less worrying about what you have.

--------

So there you go, the fish thoughts.

[gregorio]

Let's assume this is a brag post and not a beat. Obviously it looks like busted flush draw, so the simple answer is that you attempted an ill-fated bluff on the river, and villain had a hand that they never should have called with, your bluff should have worked, and you are bitter they called and screamed HYACHAYCAHCHAA!!!!! How can you call that with A9. Jesus god damned [censored]... ahhh [censored]!

But if we asusme it is a brag, two options. First, river is a bluff that worked. But this is unlikely since hero seems to know what villain had. So we can go with the second option: villain called and hero won.

We have 2 clues additional clues. First,

[ QUOTE ]
Haven't seen him pfr before.

[/ QUOTE ]

So villain has a premium hand, and hand is strong enough to get to showdown for his stack. So that leaves AK, QQ, and maybe AQ (even though hero hasn't seen villain raise, AF is 5). AA is in range, but plays flop or turn more agressive.

Second,
[ QUOTE ]
I can easily get villain in with two 1/2 psb.
Does that play into the decision?

[/ QUOTE ]

So lets assume Hero had a monster, that the plan from the flop (or at least the turn) was to get it all in on the river, and the small turn bet was just to ensure some value, while still being able to push for a 2/3psb.

On to possible hands. Hero has to have something pf worth a cc, and something on the flop worth raising, so that leaves QQ, 55, KJ, AQ and hearts (assuming AA repops pf). The turn card brings some more draws, so with hearts and straight draws out, if hero has a set, he bets more to charge the draws. What hands aren't scared of any draw. AQhh is strong and has a redraw to the nuts, but still has to worry about straight draw. So hero has to have KJhh, since this is the only hand that doesn't need to worry about giving cheap card on the turn, since it's the nuts with a redraw to the 2nd nuts.

So we know hero has KJhh, what about villain. That leaves AK, QQ and AQ. We can eliminate AKhh, since hero has Kh, and we can eliminate AQhh, since then hero would look silly not betting more on the turn. So I think we can narrow villain's range to combinations of AK and AQ that don't have 2 hearts, and QQ. QQ probably repops flop because of the draw. AK and AQ should repop too, but maybe AK/AQ are worried about sets.

So villain probably has AK, since it is more in keeping with the "haven't seen him raise pf clue," and since OP says villain is "a fish," this was a pretty fish-like wayt to play AK. AQ is also possible, but I'm going with AK.

results: Hero had KJhh; villain had AK. What's my prize.

[AZplaya]

if villian is a standard fish, he calls $11 on the flop and stacks off on the turn with any ace and any fd. Basically with your bet sizing you allowed him to chase the flush for $24 less than he would have paid.

[You're No Daisy]

Hero can't have AQhh since the flop had the Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I'm putting Hero on AA because he knows villain is a fish and probably doesn't have AA himself. Hero also knows he can outplay villain on the flop. Once the Ace hits on the flop, hero raises to charge for draws (though unlikely in this situation) or hopes villain has an Ace, a Queen or QQ...most fish are postionally unaware and don't raise preflop with suited connectors. If our Hero hasn't seen villain raise preflop over 100 hands, it's safe to assume villain has AA-QQ, AK. Knowing this, our Hero can slowplay the [censored] outta this hand and get paid off on the river.

The minumum villain calls the river here is a loaded question because he'll call with any Ace, any Queen, and he's for sure taking a set of QQQ to the bank (which is what I think villain has).

AC

[gregorio]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero can't have AQhh since the flop had the Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

So at least I got that part right.

[Paul Thomson]

i put u on T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] just for [censored] and giggles, but i'd call u with any pair

[ICMoney]

Thanks for the thoughts guys.

On the flop I put him on Ax, Kx, KK, JJ.

My plan was to raise small on the flop, jam if I hit or check behind on a blank.

He was pretty passive and I would be 100% shocked if I got CRed on the turn.

I was firing any river and wanted to leave enough behind to fold out A9, KQ or w/e on the river.

On the river he has one pair at best.

How do you like my line?


Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $7.35
BB: $85.25
UTG: $70.05
MP: $65.85
CO: $43.40
Hero (BTN): $50.50

Pre-Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, MP calls $0.50, <font color="red">CO raises to $1.50</font>, Hero calls $1.50, 2 folds, MP calls $1

Flop: ($5.25) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
MP checks, <font color="red">CO bets $3</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $8</font>, MP folds, CO calls $5

Turn: ($21.25) T (2 Players)
CO checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $10</font>, CO calls $10

River: ($41.25) 7 (2 Players)
CO checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $24</font>

[djj6835]

I think it is pretty terrible.

[ICMoney]

I also tried to bet subconscious amounts.

I raised him $5 more so maybe he thinks I have A5, 55.

On the turn I bet $10 when the Ten hits.

My $24 bet leaves exactly $7, which is the river card.

Did I psyche him out?