Pretty deep hand early on from WSOP

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think I shove the river if I choose to bluff it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Terrible play. You have to be successful a much higher percentage of the time. Plus most people would make a smaller value bet with a big hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Old live players are more scared of big bets than small ones. Don't treat every player you come across like a $109r regular.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeh, I understand that, but are you going to get villain to fold a big pair 2/3 of the time. People don't like to fold big pairs, particularly nits who wait forever to play them. He is going to figure that the story doesn't add up. Plus it's not impossible that villain just filled up.

"How did you bust out of the ME?"

"I knew this guy had aces or kings, so I made a big overbet push trying to get him to fold."

Let's look at how villain plays this hand. Raise UTG: probably 99+, AQ+.

Cbet into 2 players on dry low flop, when it is expected someone has a pp, and someone may make a play on this flop. Probably an overpair or set. A big pair is most likely, as a small overpair or set may check. Also villain probably doesn't raise 44/55 UTG.

Minireraise: this is how a donk plays a really big hand. Almost certainly QQ-AA or 99.

Checks behind on the turn. This looks like a big pair again. I set probably makes a value bet.

So you know he has a big pair, so is it really profitable to try to bluff him off it?

Let's look at how OP plays the hand. On the flop, "Wow I have a draw. Let's make a big raise and get this old nit to fold."

After minireraise, "Oh, [censored]. He reraised. Well he gave me odds to call and anyway I can't fold a draw."

On the river. "Scare card. I obviously raised the flop, called the minireraise, and checked the turn with top pair, a set, or a backdoor flush draw. Let's make a close to pot sized bet, and this old nit will maybe fold his aces. That way I have some chips left if he calls. This is the only way to win and you can never give up on a pot. Always bluff the river with a missed draw."

[betgo]

I don't think it is results oriented to say the flop raise is really horrible. It is very likely that villain has atleast an overpair, and if he doesn't, you will probably find out on later streets.

If you flat call, you get a chance to win a really big pot with little investment. Particularly if the 8 hits, the straight will not be at all obvious, and villain will pay off big bets.

I think this shows how the best way to take advantage of an ABC tight player is not always by playing aggressively.

[Clayton]

i just call the flop, but given flop action i turbo 4-shove on the flop. live ppl love finding excuses to fold aces.

[ImNotSoGood]

I think in live mtts the river shove gets a very high fold freq, higher than the 65% needed. Def shove the river here, villain sounds like the perfect person to do this against. The 14k bet is a huge spew btw, and dont raise the flop here and if you do than you should 4 bet all in here though i can understand why you didnt given the physical tell you described.