Random result grapher spreadsheet

[dave_w11]

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So, just to clarify: The simulated results (ROI, profit, graph) are randomly generated results that take variance into account? In other words, the results indicate one of the many (thousands? millions?) of different possible ways "I could have ran" over x # of games. Also, I assume the simulated results become closer as the sample size is larger?

Is the above correct?

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If I understand you correctly, all that you said is accurate, except perhaps that it takes variance into account. It doesn't in anyway directly take variance into account, but just produces one single random set of tournament results based on the finish distribution and prizepool distribution provided.


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Also, how do I determine the lowest/highest simulated results for ROI/Profit?

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As the spreadsheet only produces one set of results at a time, there is no way of finding lowest/highest results other than by continuously drawing new graphs and oberving.

For those kind of results you can use RVG's ROI simulator, which simulates 1000s of runs of tournaments rather than a single run as this spreadsheet does.


[ QUOTE ]
is there any other way to 'calculate now' since im on a mac and F9 button doesnt seem to be doing anything.

also after i changed the buyin, shoudl i not have changed the payouts (not in grey) since theyre obv different, or will that mess it up?
THANKS DAVE

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If you are wanting to simulate a normal .5/.3/.2 payout SNG you can just alter the buyin and fee and number of players and it will work out the prizes for each place automatically. You should only change the values in grey boxes.

I'm not familiar with the mac version of excel or whatever spreadsheet program you are using. I would think that somewhere in there is an option for recalculating the spreadsheet. There may be a way to add a button in the spreadsheet to make it recalculate but unforunately I don't know how [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[braminc]

thanks dave. yea i have excel for mac, and its pretty much identical to the windows version. I changed the buyin and the payouts didnt adjust for some reason, so i just changed em. IT seems to have worked now, and as i said earlier, oddly when i click the save icon, it doesnt say anything about saving the file but it DOES do the calculate now function. heh.

[CheeseMoney]

I'd love to get this stickied in the FAQ if it tests out right. If you haven't played with this yet, it will make you feel good about what is hopefully "variance". I was so weirded out when I made the sample size 10000 STTs and a 13% roi, coming up with near 1000 game break even periods, and numbers were often 2% higher or lower than actual, even at this huge sample. Also makes me feel that my current month's 1200 STT HEATER may indeed be just that. Can't imagine the swings when playing above the $100 level with an roi below 5. If anyone wants an illustration of why stars needs to reduce the rake, this would be a wonderful tool.

[spacegravy]

This is an awsome tool to have. I will no longer be playing the $555's with no table selection thats for sure haha. Also, maybe I did something wrong but I was doing the 114's over 5k games with a 6% roi and maybe 5% of the time or so I was down after 5k games. Is that really possible? If so thats pretty damn scary.

[spacegravy]

Nvm I had it at 3% but that's still pretty damn scary.

[Shrooma]

I expanded this excelsheet with a simulating part (assuming it was open source [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ). It simulates a predefined number of profit graphs based on the input given. The best and worst profit graph are shown in a graph.

For example, my 22+2 results(200 simulations, ROI 8%):



Download links:

Excel 97/2003
Excel 2007

These sheets contain VB code so you might need to enable macros. I deleted the initial graph because otherwise for each simulation the graph is updated which takes a lot of time.
It's still kind of slow so I wouldn't recommend to enter a large amount of simulations (200 simulations takes about a minute on my dual core).

The sheet may be expanded by showing for example largest downswing, upswing, break even strike etc. in the graph, but i guess this is rather difficult to implement. However, I'll try if there is enough interest.

[DMMx69]

there is interest. very cool what you did so far.

[PepsPersson]

Im interested in that aswell [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[CheeseMoney]

Please don't let Guthrie get a hold of this spreadsheet.

[ShawnM]

Thank you! Really helps put my mind at ease after having been through a horrible month long break even run.