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Old 01-03-2007, 02:00 PM
brandysbich brandysbich is offline
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Default I\'d be interested to hear what you guys think about this

Hi all,

With the new stars vip program just been launched I've been doing a bit of thinking about what I want to do poker-wise this year (or even the first couple of months as an experiment) and would just like to hear what you guys think about it, and what the flaws are.

A quick background, I'm currently staying at home in South Africa where working a 9-5 basically just pays for your petrol to work and back and very little extra, so you not missing out on much just kicking back at home. I'm actually just waiting on my visa to go to the states and staying at home with the family in the meantime (wife is american and waiting over there for me). I have about a 5.5k BR and used to be a small winner when I played LHE a few months back (bigger winner when u consider bonuses and stuff). I have endless hours in the day to play without any responsibilities right now.

Ok so the plan is to start at 1/2 and 12 table FR for roughly 50 hours per week (more than likely not move up unless i'm really crushing the games over a huge sample size). Basically treat it like my job for a few months, with two 4 hour sessions a day during the week, and maybe a bit on the weekend if i've got nothing to do.

I've estimated than on average 1 in every 3 hands at this level collects a vpp, and playing the amount of hands I will be playing (nothing less than 120k a month but more than likely 150k plus) I could collect between 40k-50k vpps a month, which over the course of a year I'd hit the 500k mark for vpp's.

With the new stars vip program reaching 500k vpps is worth around $36k alone.

This amount is for just putting in the hands alone and not even including a small winrate (which I'm pretty sure I will have) but even if I have terrible results while playing, even -1000bb months for the entire year, I'll still be coming out up around 1.5k a month. (which admittedly isnt a good salary at all, but IMO i really think i'm looking at a worst case scenario with these figures and the actual amount could be double this amount that I come out with a month.

Pro's: Almost guarenteed to come out ahead every month atleast something respectable, If I show positive results with my poker I could move up limits fairly fast and this is a great BR builder.

Con's: Gonna take tons of dedication to keep at it (but I dont think I'll have a problem with that if my calculations are correct), possibly not maximising my potential staying at a certain limit for too long, the future of online poker is unsure.

So could I get any opinions on this, good or bad as long as you state your reasons if you think this is a terrible idea?

Are my estimates accurate enough (1vpp for every 3 hands reasonable)?

IMHO opinion everything in this post is wirtten as a worst case scenario therefore I think the figures could be a bit higher, but I prefer it this way.

I'd appreciate any replies from you guys

Thanks

BB
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Old 01-03-2007, 04:40 PM
Ignignokt Ignignokt is offline
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Default Re: I\'d be interested to hear what you guys think about this

Your question would probably be better answered in the general Hold'em forum - that's where the "I'm going pro" posts are normally handled.

Suffice to say, even if you already have a sustained win rate at the level and multitabling quantity you mentioned, variance WILL hit you. Have a large bankroll cushion or prepare for ruin.
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Old 01-03-2007, 05:00 PM
brandysbich brandysbich is offline
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Default Re: I\'d be interested to hear what you guys think about this

Thanks for the reply

I thought if I post it here i'd get more responses from people actually playing these limits.

So you don't think almost 3000bb's isnt enough of a BR (i currently have no living expenses at all) and that I should expect more than -1000bb's a month for a competent player at these stakes?
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Old 01-03-2007, 05:03 PM
Ignignokt Ignignokt is offline
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Default Re: I\'d be interested to hear what you guys think about this

Like I said, the people in the more general forum are more acquainted with what it will take for you to play for a living.
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