Hows my line

[dopp16]

Foxwoods 20-40

I have a TAG image. Table has been extremely passive post flop

4 callers to me in the SB and I pick up 9d8d and complete, BB checks

Flop:

Ad Kd 4d

I check, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG + 2 bets, button calls, I raise, UTG calls two cold, 4 to the turn

Turn:
6s

I lead, UTG calls, UTG +2 raises, Button folds, I call?, UTG calls.

River

9H

Check, check, bet, I call, button folds

[andyfox]

I'd have considered 3-betting the turn in order to make UTG pay to draw to beat you. Since the table is passive, I could then comfortably fold to UTG+2 if he 4-bets.

[n.s.]

I think you really need to bet this flop - I wouldn't count on an "extremely passive" table to bet for you and this is a horrible hand to slowplay.

As played, I think you can 3-bet the turn. It sorta looks like UTG+2 was waiting for a non-diamond turn before he put more bets in, so we can probably discount a flush. And as Andy says you can dump to the a 4-bet since you'll virtually always be drawing dead, so it'll usually costs you the same as calling turn and river. It looks like UTG is in it for the long haul so get his money in there.

[DcifrThs]

andy and ns summarized my two thoughts very nicely:

1) bet the flop
2) 3 bet the turn/fold if villian is a passive one (i.e. somebody who would call down w/ 7, T, or possibly J high flush if 3 bet on the turn and only 4 bet turn if he had the Q and maybe teh J).

Barron

[kbdunn]

Definately 3 bet the turn if you can fold to a cap. If you cant, then as played.

[Mr Rick]

I think you are mostly beat when UTG+2 raises the turn. And UTG isn't going anywhere with his high diamond (or possible set). I would rather put in the extra bet on a non-diamond non-paired river to ensure I didn't get pushed off my hand by a smaller flush.

The problem with 3-betting the turn is: what are you going to do on the river after UTG+2 calls your turn raise? Assuming your plan is to bet, then you are folding to a UTG+2 raise? This costs you 2 bets instead of 1 and you still don't get to see his hand...

[n.s.]

[ QUOTE ]
And UTG isn't going anywhere with his high diamond (or possible set). I would rather put in the extra bet on a non-diamond non-paired river to ensure I didn't get pushed off my hand by a smaller flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wait, are you saying that because UTG won't fold his draw that we should wait until he misses (and hence won't call) before we bet into him? If we are ahead on the turn, the time to get the money is now, not on the river

[Mr Rick]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And UTG isn't going anywhere with his high diamond (or possible set). I would rather put in the extra bet on a non-diamond non-paired river to ensure I didn't get pushed off my hand by a smaller flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wait, are you saying that because UTG won't fold his draw that we should wait until he misses (and hence won't call) before we bet into him? If we are ahead on the turn, the time to get the money is now, not on the river

[/ QUOTE ]
No, I am saying that one reason to raise on the turn would be to get UTG to fold and reduce the outs against us those times that we are currently ahead. But the pot is big enough now that UTG will call two big bets on whatever draw he is on.

So without that reason, I wouldn't raise - because it is a value raise and I think we are behind a good amount of the time.

The bet we would be putting in on the river would be a call on a safe card, not betting out on a safe card.

[Sailboats]

I agree with the 3-bet turn and fold to a cap that it costs the same as other lines when behind, but charges other people who are drawing to a full house/flush.

I like the C/R on the flop as someone will surely bet with a A K 4 flush board, which will hit alot of hands that people limp with. Also it charges the most to people who are drawing, as they would only call with a flush or king. Even at passive tables i think you can count on someone betting with something, well at least in my experience.

[n.s.]

[ QUOTE ]

No, I am saying that one reason to raise on the turn would be to get UTG to fold and reduce the outs against us those times that we are currently ahead. But the pot is big enough now that UTG will call two big bets on whatever draw he is on.

So without that reason, I wouldn't raise - because it is a value raise and I think we are behind a good amount of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see what you are saying now. I think that makes sense, but there's probably a math problem in there somewhere (figuring out when we should be protecting our hand even when we are behind a lot of the time).

I guess our only disagreement is that I think we are still ahead a lot on the turn, although the more I think about it, the more I think maybe you are right. OP didn't mention how tight UTG+2 is, but if he's reasonably tight then most of the diamonds that he could have are beating us (JTd, QJd) - and QJd is the nuts and might slowplay the flop. Still, he really should 4-bet these on the turn which makes the raise easy.