(Razz) bet a straight Seven on the river?

[electrical]

I'm playing in this game because the stud games lately have been sparse (and also kicking my ass). Also, what's with Razz suddenly becoming strangely popular with people who like to donk around? I've seen incredible spewage since I first sat in. The 7 seat is not a specialist for sure -- seems to know the rules and has shown a few oddball winners but made no distinguishing plays -- but the 1 seat seems pretty solid.

Is there value in betting a Straight Seven on the river here? Assume villain needs an Eight at least to call, but will often have a better Seven when he calls. Also assume villain will never bet or raise with less than a Seven.

Razz ($15/$30), Ante $3, Bring-In $5 (converter)

3rd Street - (1.20 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ___calls
Seat 2: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ___brings-in ___folds
Hero: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ___completes
Seat 6: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ___folds
Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ___calls
Seat 8: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ___folds

4th Street - (4.53 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ___bets
Hero: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ___calls
Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ___calls

5th Street - (3.77 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ___bets
Hero: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ___calls
Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ___calls

6th Street - (6.77 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ___folds
Hero: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ___bets
Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ___calls

River - (8.77 BB)

Hero: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ___???
Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xx

Total pot: (8.77 BB - $263)

[Praxising]

I'll take a stab. The A doesn't raise on 3rd, but calls two better hands on 4th. I'd be thinking he had a 6 in the hole. So, the A calls 5th because he doesn't have a hand yet and just calls 6th because he has a 76. I would think a check/call on 7th would make sense.

But I donk around.

[kerze]

Lets say he has a 7 high on river (which has to better than your 7) or better x% of the time, he has an 8, y% and a 9 or worse 100-x-y %. Based on your conditions, x% of the time you will be out 1BB by betting rather than checking, y% of the time you will gain 1BB by betting rather than checking , and 1-x-y you will even by betting rather than checking.

x* -1 + y*1 +(1-x-y)*0 = 0 is your breakeven point.

This works out y-x = 0 or x=y so essentially you must think it is just as likely for him to have an 8 as you do a 7 or better.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Also assume villain will never bet or raise with less than a Seven.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bad assumption in this game, so c/c.

[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also assume villain will never bet or raise with less than a Seven.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bad assumption in this game, so c/c.

[/ QUOTE ]

I concur, I'd rather induce a bet from a worse hand with my c/c, I think that has greater value in the long run in the online 15/30 games and the villain usually won't call vs your board with weak hands.

[Andy B]

Put me down for the chicken-call.

[SGspecial]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll take a stab. The A doesn't raise on 3rd, but calls two better hands on 4th. I'd be thinking he had a 6 in the hole. So, the A calls 5th because he doesn't have a hand yet and just calls 6th because he has a 76. I would think a check/call on 7th would make sense.

But I donk around.

[/ QUOTE ]
Prax you must have been paying attention b/c I think you nailed this one [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Steve: I was wondering if we'd see a razz post by you here tonight since I noticed you at the razz tables. What you observed tonight in your opponents is a pretty typical night.

[electrical]

[ QUOTE ]
What you observed tonight in your opponents is a pretty typical night.

[/ QUOTE ]
Mind a little blown, but I guess I know now why these games are getting popular.

I see what everybody is saying about having to call if I check, and yeah, he's going to bet an Eight, so I agree with calling a bet on the end.

[blumpkin]

Pretty easy bet IMO. He'll definitely call (but not bet, most likely) an 8, and even if you're beat it's very unlikely he'll raise.

[blumpkin]

This is pretty similar to the river spot in stud high when you have UI AA. Typically, if you check, your opponent will value bet two pair but check behind with one. But, if you bet, you almost never get raised by two pair and frequently get a stubborn call from one pair that sees the big pot and thinks maybe maybe you're bluffing.