High Stakes Poker thread (11/5 - 500k buyin - Spoilers expected)

[jjshabado]

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Any flush is certainly among those hands, and while two pair / sets / straights are not very likely, they are without a doubt possibilities.

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A queen or jack high flush is much more likely than the others. I don't think even Gold is loose enough to be limping utg with hands like 72s or 94s (unless the 72 game is on), but he likely would play any Qxs.

Edit: I also think double and triple gappers and 42s are a stretch too. Of course when it comes to his hand range, your guess is as good as mine.

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Ultimately whether this was a 'good' or 'bad' fold comes down to what we think Gold's range is. I'm going to assume Doyle is in a much better position to estimate that then we are. Also saying two pair is in his range is slightly ridiculous, especially given how he was acting.

[aislephive]

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Any flush is certainly among those hands, and while two pair / sets / straights are not very likely, they are without a doubt possibilities.

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A queen or jack high flush is much more likely than the others. I don't think even Gold is loose enough to be limping utg with hands like 72s or 94s (unless the 72 game is on), but he likely would play any Qxs.

Edit: I also think double and triple gappers and 42s are a stretch too. Of course when it comes to his hand range, your guess is as good as mine.

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Jamie pretty much has no real starting hand requirements, especially in a limped pot. We've seen him cold call J8o, crappy offsuit aces, and even stuff like 32o. I really don't think it's unreasonable at all to say Jamie is playing literally any two suited here, and while you could also say that his turn raise should be a strong flush more than a weak one, I also don't think this is the case with Jamie. His turn raise size was pretty huge, I don't think he would make that particular raise size with the nut flush. I think his raise is almost always a non not flush simply because the way Jamie thinks. Nut flush = not vulnerable, yet every other flush ranging from the second nuts to the nut low needs to be protected, because if another spade falls Jamie will think it killed his hand, regardless of the action. He is scared to get to the river and not know where he is at, which is why he tends to freeze up and check marginal hands that are extremely likely the best hand. When he has nothing, in his mind his decision is pretty straightforward, either try to bluff or give up. When he has a strong hand, (ie two pair +) he has another pretty easy decision, bet. His turn play in this hand is a good example of what I mean to a degree. He wants to avoid those tough river decisions, so he decides to raise big hoping to end the hand before the river where a card could likely fall that will put him in an uncomfortable spot.

Hope that made sense. Playing donkaments and running bad so if it doesn't I blame that.

[JokersAttack]

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Any flush is certainly among those hands, and while two pair / sets / straights are not very likely, they are without a doubt possibilities.

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A queen or jack high flush is much more likely than the others. I don't think even Gold is loose enough to be limping utg with hands like 72s or 94s (unless the 72 game is on), but he likely would play any Qxs.

Edit: I also think double and triple gappers and 42s are a stretch too. Of course when it comes to his hand range, your guess is as good as mine.

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Ultimately whether this was a 'good' or 'bad' fold comes down to what we think Gold's range is. I'm going to assume Doyle is in a much better position to estimate that then we are. Also saying two pair is in his range is very ridiculous, especially given how he was acting.

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[RikkiDee]

whats hilarious is that gold actually tried to be tricky and deceiving when the flush card hit. Does gold give any of his opponents hand reading respect at all?

[plzbenice]

tomorrow!!!!!!!!! omg cant wait!

[KamiKatze]

Gold hits Flushdraw:"Yeah ... I came here to bluff, and take a big pot from Doyle, raise 125k."
Gold misses:"OMG Degenyamine, why so much? That was my move, I call".


(lol at him trying to float imo)

[Mr_Moore]

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tomorrow!!!!!!!!! omg cant wait!

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[legend42]

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is it truly beyond your grasp to believe doyle capable of limping with AQo? have you not watched the prior 3 seasons.

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Yes, I have. It's not just the limp, it's the flop lead into a big field with nothing but a gutshot Broadway, and it's the turn overbet after both draws got there. Sure it's a possible, but to think Doyle has AxQs even 5% of the time there, much less to base an analysis on that assumption, is pretty absurd.

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god, i love weak tight internits... they watch while everyone else plays. then when they go busto with AK vs someone elses 89s they storm away crying about how bad everyone else plays. and how they can't wait to get home to their dual 30" monitors.

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I have no idea what this paragraph has to do with anything. I'm primarily a live player (and TV viewer, of course). Doyle does not play AxQs that way.

I will concede Doyle gave Jamie too much credit. But whatever, let's move on. Looking forward to tonight's show...

[JDesab]

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There is no such thing as a "read" for having a better hand. If Doyle thought Jamie was strong, he needs to think about the hands that Jamie would consider "strong." Any flush is certainly among those hands, and while two pair / sets / straights are not very likely, they are without a doubt possibilities. Jamie also loves to bluff as we know, and potentially picking off a Jamie Gold bluff here will reap huge rewards, mainly the $170k in the middle, $135k or so from Gold.

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a point well stated. i wish i had been able to come across as well.

look. flush over flush is a very profitable hand. while others have called it marginal as if marginal situations are disdainful. they are not.

[Osprey]

Flush over flush is one of the most profitable situations to be in- but do people honestly think Gold was going broke with, say, the 3 high flush in that situation if no spade comes on the river? Doyle is ahead of most flushes; the way this hand was played though, he'll win what's in the middle when he's good if Jamie gets a clue with a really low flush, and he'll lose it all those times that Jamie has the 2 flushes better than his. If you know Gold will go broke with any flush, then Doyle didn't play it well, but Gold may be able to fold a flush.