Video HH, Phil Glafond vs Todd Brunson

[MyPTBB100isPOOP]

Galfond vs Brunson


This hand illustrates a question Ive had about top level players, and what statistical, or mathematical knowlege they have commited to memory. It is easy to assemble, using pokerstove, a hand range in which you are getting the right price to call against, but here in a live setting, or even in an online setting, as you couldnt really pop up pokerstove and run the numbers everytime a tough situation came up, what kind of mathematical "facts" have you commited to memory which allow you to make this call. If you know (hypothetically) that the hands he holds which have you beat were TT/55/77, what do you have to have memorized, that would allow you to construct a hand range you could profitably call against.

I.E. I know that I am 12% vs that range, I also know that every flush draw he holds gives me X% more equity every PP I beat gives me X% more equity etc. etc.

Do great players, have memorized, what their equity is vs ranges that beat them, and know specifically how exact hands change that equity?? If not, what is fundamentally common?

[jj12]

from what i've seen from todd brunson on HSP. flop is an easy call.

[reup]

FAT

[MyPTBB100isPOOP]

bump

[PerDoom]

I doubt even experts knows/calculates exactly in their head what their equity is in a given spot against what they think their opponent's range is, but most have a pretty good estimate of where they are at.

[huhwhatyousay?]

The key concepts you need to "memorize" in spots such as these actually become fairly trivial once you get some work in with Pokerstove and a calculator. I'll get to that later, but first let me explain a few concepts that might open up the way you think about the game.

In poker, the fact that you have a restricted amount of action-types that often cross into one another EV-wise really eliminates the need to do complicated math. In other words, a lot of difficult decisions stem from the fact that your actions are all relatively close in EV. In the situation at hand, if the reads were as cut and clear as "he nearly always has a set here and almost never has draws" or "he nearly always has Tx,draws, and other crap", there would be practically no need to calculate that your equity vs. the former range is around 10%, and your equity vs. the latter range is 75% (or whatever). One action, either fold or call, would be clearly and intuitively superior to the other.

One of the huge ironies about poker is that the harder the decisions are mathematically, the less it hurts to guess or flip a coin, simply because as the EV difference between folding and calling (for example) becomes more and more negligible.

Note that there is tremendous difference between a difficult -mathematical- decision and a difficult -poker- decision. I'm not in any way advocating that you should just "roll dice" whenever you are faced with a difficult decision that involves a choice between several legitimate options. Difficult -poker- decisions are usually non-mathematical in nature (or more accurately, mathematically unfeasible/unquantifiable), and involve the knowledge of not only your equity vs. your opponent's range, but knowledge of how your opponent will play the hands in his range on future streets, how your opponent perceives your range, and tons of other factors (usually multi-street considerations). And that my friends, is beyond the realm of a flip of a coin.

To close, here is a simple way to do this math "in your head" and a few examples:

-Equity of KK vs. Sets here is around 10%

-Equity of KK vs. various naked/combo draws here is more or less around 50%.

Equity vs. 1/2 draws(9) and 1/2 sets(9) is

(1/2)(0.10) + (1/2)(0.50) = 30%

Equity vs. 2/3 draws(18) and 1/3 sets(9) is

(1/3)(0.10) + (2/3)(0.50) = around 37%

Hope this helps.

[MyPTBB100isPOOP]

[ QUOTE ]
To close, here is a simple way to do this math "in your head" and a few examples:

-Equity of KK vs. Sets here is around 10%

-Equity of KK vs. various naked/combo draws here is more or less around 50%.

Equity vs. 1/2 draws(9) and 1/2 sets(9) is

(1/2)(0.10) + (1/2)(0.50) = 30%

Equity vs. 2/3 draws(18) and 1/3 sets(9) is

(1/3)(0.10) + (2/3)(0.50) = around 37%

[/ QUOTE ]


Thanks for the reply, this does help quite a bit, just knowing how others are thinking about this. Question about that math above, does that take into account the actual distributions or was it more general?

[Janis N.]

huhwhatyousay, good post.

Though I think the equity against draws is a bit more than 50%; depends again on the proportion of naked vs. combo draws.

[soah]

backdoor hearts was worth 5% equity too

[freeucm]

Who played their hand the best?

The guy with 88 to reraise after Todd raises in EP showing strength, firing on a 10 high flop into 2 other players, when late position just calls. His play was probably the
thinest/ev- play out of them all.
Todd raising from 65 suited from early position to represent aces only to play his flush draw and pair very strong, a definite risky play.

The guy with KK flat calling from late position. Calling Todds shove after he bets and shoves.

Its close between Todd and the other guy, I dont see Todd folding when hes probably worth 5 million dollars and has about 14 outs on the flop a bit behind in the hand. Im actually going with todds play even though he wasn't the favorite in this hand.