Help me figure the math

[mikehildebrand]

OK, home game Saturday, I will try to get this right, there were a lot of chemicals out there. Playing $.25/$.50 NL Hold 'em. Play with this group a bit, so I have a fairly solid read on the regulars. Pre-Flop, there are 7 people in the hand. I am in the cutoff. UTG Limps, player 2 goes all-in for 15.00, give or take .50. Player 3 looks at his hand, and tanks for about a minute, and calls. Player 4 insta calls. I look down at my cards and see 45s. Behind me I notice the button eyballing his chips. I think for a bit and figure, at this point there is 46.25 in the pot, with the button and blinds to act. I had 16.50, so I push instead of call. Needless to say, the button and nlinds fold as does UTG.
Here is where I thought I was based on my observation.
Player 2 - AA or JJ, he has a tendancy to play these hands identical and push in.
Player 3 - AQ or AJ, he is a semi-loose player and for him to think so hard, he figured he was on overcards.
Player 4 - AK, I was fairly square on him, he figured he was getting odds.
Like I said, by this time, There was 46.25 in the pot, with the players 3 and for callng another 1.50 each in a side pot of 4.50, with a main pot of 61.25.
Was I getting the right odds? Was this a horrible call? I will post the results after, but I want to look at this from a mathmatical and read view first. Please, no flaming, sincere help.

[pismeyer]

IMO - Not a good call, maybe gutsy at best.

Less than 3 to 1 ish.

Very interested in the outcome.

P [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[mikehildebrand]

Thanks, I will update the outcome in a bit. My figure was slightly less than 3 to 1 also, BUT, I really did think that the button was going to call too, so I added him into the equation, so implied I was about a 4 to 1, in my thought process. But you are right, I think it was a marginal call also. two things I did not mention, and I do not know if it really matters or not, but I am seen as a vrey Tight Aggressive player, and hadn't played to much. Second, I was on a 20.00 freeroll as a table loan came in. Now the TA thing probably is moot, as I was a doknkey calling, but earnestly, I thought marginal call, but good odds on my money.

[Gonso]

This is an absolutely clear fold. Your TA image is irrelevant here, you have two people in the pot for about what you have in your stack - you're bascially calling when you go all-in. Against those two you have no fold equity at all - in fact, calling with your image might discourage calls behind you that would have helped fatten the pot.

Also, Harrington has a chapter on Structured Hand Analysis you might want to check out, especially if you're not familiar with how to evaluate these ranges mathematically.

[elwoodblues]

[ QUOTE ]

Player 2 - AA or JJ, he has a tendancy to play these hands identical and push in.
Player 3 - AQ or AJ, he is a semi-loose player and for him to think so hard, he figured he was on overcards.
Player 4 - AK, I was fairly square on him, he figured he was getting odds

[/ QUOTE ]

These seem like ridiculous "reads" given the situation. Putting someone on one or two hands is quite limiting. How would player 3 play the following: 88, 99, TT, QQ, KK, AKs, AK, AQs, ATs --- if he is semi-loose it is a bit limiting to put him on AQ or AJ only, in my opinion. With player 4, why would you discount AA or KK?

[TexRef]

This isn't even close - it's a fold. You are way behind everything - there is nothing that you can beat! You're likely facing at least one pair and pair vs undercards puts you with the worst possible odds to get your money in.

[Rottersod]

[ QUOTE ]
This isn't even close - it's a fold. You are way behind everything - there is nothing that you can beat! You're likely facing at least one pair and pair vs undercards puts you with the worst possible odds to get your money in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously he knows he is behind. The point is that he is essentially on a freeroll and can triple or quadruple up if his 45s hits and if he really can put the other's on high hands with shared A's then his call starts to make sense. Even if 1 or 2 of them are playing high pocket pairs he still has all the outs from 2,3,4,5,6,7, and maybe 8 and he's probably 100% certain that none of the others have any piece of those. That's another reason why his raise AI was good - to get out the remaining 2 players who may have felt pot committed to play marginal hands. It's a gutsy move and I doubt that the math would justify it but sometimes you gotta say screw the math and...GAMBOOL!

[abbingent]

FOLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!
maybe pocket 10's would be a good call. I suspect most of the face and ace cards were drawing thin. I recently called in this exact situation in New Orleans last week. My opponents flipped over AJ , AK, and K9 offsuit. my 10's held and scooped $450

[Small Fry]

Well with those exact hand ranges you should be about 22% to win, or about 3.5:1. You're getting about 3:1 and if the button comes along 4:1. Overall, if the button comes in I guess it's a +ev move. From a metagame perspective this might be a brilliant move though. You should get action later as they'll remember your 54 all in after 3 players....lol

But...I have a hard time with the hands you assign these guys. I think it's a little limited. Or maybe you mean AA-JJ for player 2 rather than AA or JJ, How do you eliminate KK and QQ? Why not JJ or TT for player 3, thinking player 2 might have AK or AQ. Not sure how player 4 is getting odds with AK If he's up against AA and AQ..Drawing to running Kings? or a straight?

[mikehildebrand]

Small Fry - Part of it is the frequency I play with these guys. Player 2 rarely plays KK or QQ like that, I would have been more surprised to see those two hands. When I mention he generally alwyas plays hands like this, I meant it. Player 4 is just really a poor player (I mean, I don't look like the nuts, but compared to this guy), he truly believes AK is unbeatable and will call with it every time. I appreciate your insight into this hand, though, it makes sense.