5/10, small pair + draw

wmspringer · #1 05-07-2006, 06:32 PM

At each street, I felt like the pot odds were forcing me to call, although it was a grit your teeth and hate it call on the river..

The raiser is a gambler with 27.7% VP$P; the first caller is similar. The 2nd caller is a cash machine with 63% VP$P. I consider the most likely hands for the first 2 to be Ax or any two broadway; 2nd caller (who folded the turn before my action) could be coming in from the sb with any two.

I'm primarily wondering whether I should have bet, folded, or checkraised the turn.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises, MP calls, 2 folds, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG raises, MP calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, MP bets, SB folds, Hero calls, UTG folds.

River: (10 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12 BB

JJH3984 · #2 05-07-2006, 07:56 PM

Why are we leading the flop? We are just asking UTG to thin the field, which i'm pretty sure we don't want. Unless you think your hand is best right now, which IMO is pretty unlikely.

JayKon · #3 05-07-2006, 09:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why are we leading the flop? We are just asking UTG to thin the field, which i'm pretty sure we don't want. Unless you think your hand is best right now, which IMO is pretty unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was wondering the same. Also, what is the raisers PRF%? If it is 27.7% and you have proven yourself as a very agressive and dangerious oponent, the bet _may_ be ok.

If, however, his PFR% is say 4%, then the lead bet is bad no matter what.

Johnny#5 · #4 05-07-2006, 10:29 PM

Gamblers or not, I think you need to fold preflop here. 54 offsuit just doesn't have enough ways to win even getting 7-1 preflop. In my experience you have to let it go on the flop too often and if you don't you end up chasing weak draws with poor implied odds, like flopping weak pairs. Straights, trips, and weak two-pair hands which are easily counterfeited/beaten in multiway pots just don't give good enough odds IMO.

Given that you saw a flop, you likely have more than your share of equity. I like the flop lead since it doesn't give much info about your hand (you were in the BB after all) and invites lots of loose/bad calls with overcards/gutterballs and the like. I think you should strongly consider 3-betting the flop since UTG's best likely hand is an overpair which we don't really fear and the other players are likely just padding the pot.

You have to continue on this turn. MP's turn bet comes in position and could be from a lot of hands, maybe a 7, maybe a turned spade draw, a 5, something stronger, who knows. I don't think you can really put him on a hand yet, but I doubt it's pure air. He thinks it is either best or could be best on the river. At like 10-1 you definitely need to call this. I don't like a checkraise much at these limits in this situation because I think it has too little folding equity and the only hand that will fold the river is one that you beat anyway. This is bad since you would have to follow the checkraise with a river bet which is essentially a bluff if you don't get there.

I think you can probably fold this river. Any pair he could have had on the turn beats you, also a spade draw with Asxs got there. I don't know though ... you have played your hand like a 5 which of course is what you have. You don't beat much on the river, and I think there is a fair possibility that the ace helped him since donkeys love to call raises with hands like As5s. I would fold, but I don't think calling would cost you that much, if anything.