Big draw on turn vs tag

[sean457j]

If you are the lesser half of 70:30 to win the hand, then you are a 2.33:1 underdog to win on the river. At this point in the hand you need to call a bet of $13.75 (pot is $27.50) to see the river. Therefore you only need to win a minimum of $4.59 (($13.75 x 2.33) - $27.50) on the river to make this a profitable hand. Since the pot will be $41.25 on the river - it is very hard to see the villain not calling, or making a bet, well above this value.

If I have gotten the math right then I think you will show a +EV calling this bet.