200NL Line Vs Unbeliever And Bad River

[Supersonic]

I've played 50 hands at this table at 33/22 and have established a very loose aggro image by raising 3 or 4 times in a row a few times, never folding my button in an unraised pot, etc. The table is reacting passively and I am starting to get called down a bit. The Villain is a dirty shortstacker, buying in for $60 each time. I already stacked him once when he called a PSB on the flop and turn and an overbet on the river with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on a Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] board.

On to the hand in question... Villain has doubled through someone since reloading and has $140. After 48 hands he is 60/8 with a post flop AF of 2.18 but he is playing me differently to the rest of the table. He almost certainly sees me as an overaggressive fish who will bluff too much post flop.

Party Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

MP: $99.75
CO: $271.57
BTN: $143.84
SB: $201.30
BB: $202
Hero (UTG): $274.05

Pre-Flop: Q A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $8</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $14</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $6

Flop: ($31) 7 A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($31) K (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $20</font>, BTN calls $20

River: ($71) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $40</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $109.84 and is All-In</font>, Hero folds

Results: $151 Pot
BTN mucked and WON $217.84 (+$143.84 NET)

Preflop: This is the first time he has done that. I have no idea what it means but my initial reaction was that he probably had AK-A10, 88+, KQ, KJ; something like that.

Flop: I obviously checked expecting him to bet, but leading probably would have been good vs this guy. Obv chances are he doesn't have an ace now.

Turn: Time to take the initiative. I can very probably get a call or two from a King or PP at this point.

River: Doh. I decided that because of my image, because I know he is waiting to call my bluff that I can value bet here with the intention of folding to a raise. I choose 40 because it's enough that it doesn't look like I will fold to a bluff all in for only 70 more, but I am not really scared of a bluff from this dude. I figure that if he has an Ace he is definitely calling, and if he has a PP QQ-88 he is probably calling. I also think 40 makes sure he doesn't raise me with an Ace, and most importantly is enough to look like a bluff from me.

So obviously I'm interested in if you think the river value bet/fold is better than a check/call or a bet/call?

[ikestoys]

seems like your odds are pretty ridic to bet/fold

[Supersonic]

Pot odds on the final call are just over 3/1, I really don't think I am good there that often. I haven't seen this guy do any strong bluffing, although that he expects me to bluff does increase that likelyhood. If he is pushing for value I must surely be beat... if he has something like AJ I don't think he's going to play the flop and turn so passively and then decide to push the river over a bet.. that would be a pretty strange slowplay?

[pineapple888]

Your line seems fine to me.