improving my WTSD

[rzk]

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What the hell about people folding in hand 5!?!?! I am chocked!

The guy is a LAG. He will call the flop and turn with A high, 66, 55, 44, 22, 98, 97, 87, 54, Q8, A6, A3. Ok so some of them needs to be discounted and the river is not good but I would never ever fold this hand in this spot against that guy. What the hell is up with the expert folds against LAG morons?!?!?

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ok, i'm starting to see why hand 5 might be a call. to verify this, i probably need to count combos to see if the ones he probably bets account for 1/6 of his range.

still very confused about my low wtsd. the vast majority of my opponents have wtsd above 35 and very often above 40, so they are not weak tight. to increase my wtsd by 5% i'd have to get to showdown around 35 extra times in 750 hands (assuming i see a flop roughly 1/3 of the time). if i only made a 2-4 wrong folds i don't see how this is possible.

[Flintoff]

Havent read much of it but I think hand 5 is definitely C/C.

[sqvirrel]

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to increase my wtsd by 5% i'd have to get to showdown around 35 extra times in 750 hands (assuming i see a flop roughly 1/3 of the time). if i only made a 2-4 wrong folds i don't see how this is possible.

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It is entirely possible that your sample wasn't valid (750 hands really won't reveal much) and it is also possible that you are looking at the wrong things. I agree with you that many of those hands are marginal. If you have the habit of always folding on the margin though, then good opponents will force you to make mistakes where the action doesn't look at all marginal to you. If someone is folding too often to pressure then you better believe that I will pick a few spots to apply extra pressure with a second best hand. Full Tilt 3/6 is aggressive enough that you need to find more ways to get to showdown, even if that means giving free cards where you wouldn't be comfortable with a raise. b/f is a valid line but against some opponents it is better just to get to showdown with marginal made hands while snapping off river bluffs.

Out of curiosity, what is your overall river fold percentage?

[marching_on_together]

Two other hands where you called and most disagreed were H1 and H2. I actually agree with your call down in H1 (hero QsJd 9 K 2Q rainbow) i think this can be a worse hand which is then forced to bet the river, surprised so many want to fold this.

For hand two (hero AdQh 9cTsQs) there seems to be a range of opinion but but most seem to agree with the Flop call and disagree with the river call. Like you I would probably call this river not feeling good about my hand.

[rzk]

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to increase my wtsd by 5% i'd have to get to showdown around 35 extra times in 750 hands (assuming i see a flop roughly 1/3 of the time). if i only made a 2-4 wrong folds i don't see how this is possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is entirely possible that your sample wasn't valid (750 hands really won't reveal much) and it is also possible that you are looking at the wrong things. I agree with you that many of those hands are marginal. If you have the habit of always folding on the margin though, then good opponents will force you to make mistakes where the action doesn't look at all marginal to you. If someone is folding too often to pressure then you better believe that I will pick a few spots to apply extra pressure with a second best hand. Full Tilt 3/6 is aggressive enough that you need to find more ways to get to showdown, even if that means giving free cards where you wouldn't be comfortable with a raise. b/f is a valid line but against some opponents it is better just to get to showdown with marginal made hands while snapping off river bluffs.

Out of curiosity, what is your overall river fold percentage?

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for the last 80k hands my wtsd is 30.7% and fold to river bet is 45.8%
for the last 27k hands these numbers are 30.0% and 47.3% respectively.

the 750 hands should be enough to reveal at least 20 extra hands where i should have gotten to showdown if the average number of such hands is 35.

is there any trick to make PAHUD display your overall stats (like fold to flop %) and not just stats for this session?

[Soundwave]

i'm also calling the river in hand 5, though bet-fold is reasonable.

hand 6 looks like a bad fold to me, there are a million hands that are semi-bluff raising that turn, plus you've probably got 4-6 outs to improve if you are behind.

hand 9 bet-fold the turn is standard, check-fold is real weak sauce in that spot. if you do this a lot you're going to get floated to death. check-raise would be super freaky if he's doing this all the time.

hand 10 find a raise somewhere, flop or prob turn. why are you assuming you're behind? many people with donk with any two on that board. you've got nearly 5000 hands on this guy but no read on what a donk means?? as played i've got no idea what to do on the river, probably a fold is ok.

hand 14 - this is probably ok, but again if it looks like you give up easily out of position this could be a float. something to be aware of.

one further thing, i don't much like raising limpers with unsuited high cards from the blinds, multiway especially (i.e AK in hand 7 is asking for trouble unless the field is super passive). unless you're doing this with a decent range it gives away your hand and makes you easier to play against, and plus gives others the odds to chase further.

[yourface]

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i'm also calling the river in hand 5, though bet-fold is reasonable.

hand 6 looks like a bad fold to me, there are a million hands that are semi-bluff raising that turn, plus you've probably got 4-6 outs to improve if you are behind.

hand 9 bet-fold the turn is standard, check-fold is real weak sauce in that spot. if you do this a lot you're going to get floated to death. check-raise would be super freaky if he's doing this all the time.

hand 10 find a raise somewhere, flop or prob turn. why are you assuming you're behind? many people with donk with any two on that board. you've got nearly 5000 hands on this guy but no read on what a donk means?? as played i've got no idea what to do on the river, probably a fold is ok.

hand 14 - this is probably ok, but again if it looks like you give up easily out of position this could be a float. something to be aware of.

one further thing, i don't much like raising limpers with unsuited high cards from the blinds, multiway especially (i.e AK in hand 7 is asking for trouble unless the field is super passive). unless you're doing this with a decent range it gives away your hand and makes you easier to play against, and plus gives others the odds to chase further.

[/ QUOTE ]

raising the flop in hand 10 is a mistake imo. we don't want to get semibluffed off the best hand and most villains will keep betting our hand for us with a draw. turn fsdr is ok I guess but I think a better line is to let villain barrel off. assuming villain bets the river with non-showdownable hands (safe assumption imo) we win the same from missed draws, we lose less to draws that get there because we can safely fold to certain river cards, and again we avoid being pushed off the best hand.

and you've gots to raise AKo preflop in hand 7. you have a significant equity edge you need to push.

[Soundwave]

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turn fsdr is ok I guess but I think a better line is to let villain barrel off. assuming villain bets the river with non-showdownable hands (safe assumption imo) we win the same from missed draws, we lose less to draws that get there because we can safely fold to certain river cards, and again we avoid being pushed off the best hand.

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maybe, not sure about this. it's pretty close. if we don't raise the turn we probably have to call most rivers imho, so not sure we lose less when draws get there. i'd rather raise while probably ahead - as i said though a lot depends on the read on the flop donk. i'm also not so sure this villian is definitely putting in another bet on the river with a busted draw, maybe. raising the turn here also provides some balance for semi-bluff turn raises.

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and you've gots to raise AKo preflop in hand 7. you have a significant equity edge you need to push.

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your equity changes so drastically on the flop in this situation i'd rather wait and see it before putting in more bets. you're bloating the pot out of position, with cards unlikely to win unimproved multiway, i don't like doing that except against certain opposition. if they're suited i'll raise.

[rzk]

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i'm also calling the river in hand 5, though bet-fold is reasonable.


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i disagree about b/f, because with so many overcards my hand is at most a bluff-catcher.

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hand 6 looks like a bad fold to me, there are a million hands that are semi-bluff raising that turn, plus you've probably got 4-6 outs to improve if you are behind.


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i have 99, so i don't see how i can have more than 2 outs.

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hand 9 bet-fold the turn is standard, check-fold is real weak sauce in that spot. if you do this a lot you're going to get floated to death. check-raise would be super freaky if he's doing this all the time.


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though b/f may be correct (hard for me to say), it is certainly not standard, because the other posted opinions were c/c (2 times), b/c (1 time), c/f (1 time), b/? (1 time, no second action given)

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hand 10 find a raise somewhere, flop or prob turn. why are you assuming you're behind? many people with donk with any two on that board. you've got nearly 5000 hands on this guy but no read on what a donk means?? as played i've got no idea what to do on the river, probably a fold is ok.


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i'm assuming i'm behind because my equity is certainly less than 50% against his range. the 5000 hands are datamined, i haven't played with this guy much.

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one further thing, i don't much like raising limpers with unsuited high cards from the blinds, multiway especially (i.e AK in hand 7 is asking for trouble unless the field is super passive). unless you're doing this with a decent range it gives away your hand and makes you easier to play against, and plus gives others the odds to chase further.

[/ QUOTE ]

if i exclude AK from my raising range, my range would be even narrower, so by this logic i'd give away my hand even more when i raise. in any case, it looks like you are new to the forum. i'm also pretty new, but i think much more real evidence is required to make statements about correct preflop play, especially if the play you recommend is non-standard. if it were that simple to prove which play is correct, poker would be easy. the "real evidence" i'm talking about would include:

- statistical data with sufficient sample size for both strategies
- results of simulations
- quoting the opinion of a well-known author
- the fact that you are a proven excellent player so that if one knows you do something, it is more like to be correct

for this last reason, if similar advice was given by an established player on this forum, it would make much more sense to simply trust it without requiring any hard data. as it is, nobody yet knows what kind of player you are. moreover, this precise advice and argument that you give can be found in one of standard poker books (possibly Johny Chan's, i can't remember now), so just by stating your source you could have provided the kind of "real evidence" i was talking about.

[Oink]

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one further thing, i don't much like raising limpers with unsuited high cards from the blinds, multiway especially (i.e AK in hand 7 is asking for trouble unless the field is super passive). unless you're doing this with a decent range it gives away your hand and makes you easier to play against, and plus gives others the odds to chase further.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not pushing the eq edge here with AK against this many villains is a significant mistake. Saying Hero should call to decrease their odds to chase later on is a terrible line of thinking. So you should also check behind a marginal hand like 2nd pair on the flop so villains dont have odds to call with their draws on the turn?

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hand 10 find a raise somewhere, flop or prob turn. why are you assuming you're behind? many people with donk with any two on that board. you've got nearly 5000 hands on this guy but no read on what a donk means?? as played i've got no idea what to do on the river, probably a fold is ok.


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I think raising is an option against some players. But without reads I prefer to play it passively. Whether a raise is good REALLY depends on what villain donks with and without reads I always assume they donk with made hands more often than draws. Other than that Yourface explains pretty well why raising the 44 is a mistake often enough.