KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.

[NoSetNoBet]

[ QUOTE ]
You are certain enough that a turn 3 bet from UTG means AA, that you can fold your hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

In the passive live games i play in, I would be dead certain that a turn 3-bet from UTG (or anyone else) means my kings are nowhere near good. Is this weak?

[mikeca]

[ QUOTE ]
In the passive live games i play in, I would be dead certain that a turn 3-bet from UTG (or anyone else) means my kings are nowhere near good. Is this weak?

[/ QUOTE ]

Against many or most opponents in my game, I would agree, but there also are some agresso-maniacs that way overplay big pocket pairs. Many of these are young, very inexperienced players or players with NL home game experience. They frequently seem to go after players who they have seen lay down hands after raising or reraising preflop or on the flop. They are especially likely to do this on a flop that AK misses. They figure you are on AK and if they just keep raising you will give up. I have almost folded several times, only to be surprised by winning the pot.

I suspect the players in Kit’s 5/10 game are more experienced than that.

The other question is, if you raise the flop, UTG 3 bets, and you cap the flop. Then UTG still leads into you on the turn, how much less certain are you that you are beat here? Do you think you can fold when UTG leads into on a apparently blank turn card after you capped the flop? If you can fold here, it only costs 2 BB.

[Penner]

I think kit played it perfect.

The draws are going no where on the flop for a raise. Using his relative position to present the field with two big bets on the turn is the best play.

Great fold on the turn, as you where most likely drawing to 2 outs or dead.

Why aren't you playing higher?

Penni

[BadBigBabar]

raise this flop 110% of the time please

[AlienBoy]

grunch

PF: good. Cap with KK always, every day, every time from here to timbuktu

FLOP: No. RAISE. You've got your logic backwards. Not raising gives some draws the odds to call. One of the very important reasons for raising is make it incorrect for many draws to call.

TURN: I think raising is probably just spew.


AB

posted from my iPhone while playing 4/8 at Commerce, so sorry for typos.

[KitCloudkicker]

so I was chatting this hand up with several 2+2ers on AIM. several interesting points came up.

courtesty of mrwookie:

1) could it be possible that we actually want to keep some folks in this hand? think about who might fold for 2 bets on the flop but call for 1 - hands like QJ, KQ. I dont think we want these hands out unless they have a BDFD.

2)the flop is pretty ugly and if opponents are tight, they probably have overs that missed. however, if they're loose, they're more likely to have hit this flop with a draw that can profitably call 2 bets on the flop. thus in a very loose game waiting til the turn might be best.

On the other hand, JJH and BBB say that raising the flop is best:

1) equity is not likely going to change drastically based on what the next card is. thus we are forgoing too much equity by smooth calling the flop.

2) the reasoning behind #1 is that the board is quite ragged, unlike the example in p 163 of SSHE, which has a flush draw. this tilts the decision in favor of a flop raise.

FWIW i guess i still dont know what the best play here is. just throwing more ideas out there.

[KitCloudkicker]

[ QUOTE ]


FLOP: No. RAISE. You've got your logic backwards. Not raising gives draws the odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

are you sure you counted your odds correctly? what draws arent getting odds to call even if i raise? the odds of hitting a gutshot are 10.5:1. if i raise i offer like 12:1. gutshots make money when i raise.

why is raising the turn spew if i'm folding to a 3 bet?

[AlienBoy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


FLOP: No. RAISE. You've got your logic backwards. Not raising gives some draws the odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

are you sure you counted your odds correctly? what draws arent getting odds to call even if i raise? the odds of hitting a gutshot are 10.5:1. if i raise i offer like 12:1. gutshots make money when i raise.


[/ QUOTE ]

You quoted me before I fixed my post - it's SOME draws ...

Gutshot and flush draws are never folding here. Calling one bet they are getting 22 to 1 or more. Reducing their odds also reduces their long term advantage.

But muuch more importantly back door draws at getting correct odds to chase here, raising makes it incorrect to chase.


[ QUOTE ]



why is raising the turn spew if i'm folding to a 3 bet?


[/ QUOTE ]

[Douglas Leslie]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't get it. How are you offering odds to those behind you by raising? Is it because you're committing yourself to a showdown?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the the point here is that in a big pot, hero should be trying to maximise his chances of winning the hand rather than trying to increase the amount of money in the pot for the sake of it. The theory is that he cannot protect his hand by raising the flop because anyone with a gutshot straight draw will be getting the correct odds to call and will still have the correct odds to call again when the turn comes around. On the other hand, if he waits until the turn to raise, the gutshots will now be making an arithmetical mistake when they call.
This of course assumes that UTG will in fact lead out on the turn. If he doesn't, then hero has not protected his hand by the flop call and has lost the chance to get more money in the pot if he was ahead. Of course, if UTG has AA, hero doesn't really have a hand to protect.

As an aside, do people really cold call two bets to them with hands like 65 or J10 at 5-10? Are these really likely holdings to be up against? Those are the sorts of call I run into in the micros and I always kind of assumed that they would be pretty rare at higher stakes.

[SNOWBALL]

stove says calldown

472,374 games 0.188 secs 2,512,627 games/sec

Board: 9s 7h 3c 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 10.295% 10.29% 00.00% 48630 0.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 57.882% 56.69% 01.19% 267810 5608.50 { TT-77, 33, JTs, 97s+, 87s, 65s }
Hand 2: 31.823% 30.64% 01.19% 144717 5608.50 { JJ-77, 33, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, ATs, Ac9c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, KTs, QcJc, QcTc, JTs, 97s+, 87s, 65s, ATo }


That's giving the turn 3 bettor every suited 2 pair (so discounted 2 pairs), 2 diff straights, every set, and only one semibluff hand (TT)

The turn caller has all of those hands plus some strong draws

UTG has nothing since he folded. Anyway, it looks like you have the effective odds to calldown.

these preposterously huge pots are MEANT to be bloodbaths. Just go with it. We're playing limit hold em. Things will get messy. Just make sure to wear your seatbelt at all times, and you'll be fine. Bonne Voyage.