KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.

[Ricks]

I don't think we should give a lot of consideration to the LRR. This is usually not AA.

Waiting for the turn to raise is right out of SSHE and they use a KK hand as an example. You have little or no chance to protect your hand on the flop because our raise would offer everyone at least 23:2. Waiting for the turn offers less than 8:1 to any GS plus we would have a good chance to get some other hands to incorrectly fold for two BBs.

I am trying to think of a reason not to fold for one more bet on the turn and we can probably SD getting 23:2. I really think we have little chance, though.

[mikeca]

I play mostly 3/6 and in my experience the early position limp/3-bet is AA/KK maybe 50% of the time. The more passive the player, the more likely it is AA.

I really don’t understand not raising the flop here. If there are draws out there, I want to charge them the maximum for the times they don’t make it. If UTG does not three bet, then he probably does not have AA. I would definitely raise this flop.

After the 3 bet on the turn, I’m pretty sure that you are beat. It could be 2 pair and you still have outs, but it is probably the straight. I would fold unless MP was a maniac or some tricky, supper aggressive player.

[KitCloudkicker]

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I want to charge them the maximum for the times they don’t make it.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is exactly why i didnt raise the flop.

to "charge the maximum" we have to wait until the turn to raise, and hope the draws dont get there on that card.

also, like ricks pointed out, limit hold em (imo) is not necessarily about "charging". its about waiting for an opportunity where you can make it incorrect for people to call (notice that if i raise the flop, all gutshots are making a mistake by folding) or induce them to make an improper fold. this cannot be done on the flop.

imo, the unique thing about limit poker is that, in reality, all hands (except the unbeatable nuts) are essentially draws until all 5 cards are dealt. For example, you have black TT, someone has KhQh, and another has A9. the flop is 9h3h2s. who is charging who in this spot?

[gobbledygeek]

Regarding charging draws in this hand...

1) On flop, if we are able to 4bet (which might be possible if UTG 3bets a big pair) we'll be charging a single gutshot 28:4 if they are the only other one that comes along for the ride, 32:4 if one other joins us; I guess implied odds might still make this a profitable flop play for them but it seems a little close to me.

2) While we may not be charging gutshots to continue, we will be charging others (2 outers, backdoors) a lot to continue. Do we make more by letting 1 gutshot continue profitably along with us while charging 3 other idiots?

[mikeca]

[ QUOTE ]
also, like ricks pointed out, limit hold em (imo) is not necessarily about "charging". its about waiting for an opportunity where you can make it incorrect for people to call (notice that if i raise the flop, all gutshots are making a mistake by folding) or induce them to make an improper fold. this cannot be done on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that in this case there is nothing you can do to protect your hand against gutshots on the flop. They are going to call on this flop no matter what, but do all your opponents have gutshots? What about opponents with a pocket pair, like 88, 66, 55, 44 or 22? With no raise they are getting the correct odds to peel the flop. With a raise it would be a mistake for them to peel. Also anyone with just Ax is getting the odds to peel the flop when you don’t raise.

[mikeca]

[ QUOTE ]
imo, the unique thing about limit poker is that, in reality, all hands (except the unbeatable nuts) are essentially draws until all 5 cards are dealt. For example, you have black TT, someone has KhQh, and another has A9. the flop is 9h3h2s. who is charging who in this spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

Just because there are two to a flush on the board, doesn’t mean that one of your opponents has the flush draw. In this particular case clearly the KQ hand has the best draw, with both two overcards and the flush draw. Still, it is actually the hand with TPTK that has the least equity in this pot. I ran pokerStove on this, and the TT hand has 31.15% equity, the KQ 53.15% and the A9 15.18%. So TT is only making a small mistake by raising here. It would be a bigger mistake if you were heads up with the KQ hand. But you don’t know what your opponent’s cards are. Many times your opponents will not have the flush draw. So I think you still need to raise in this case.

[mikeca]

In my mind the most important question on the flop is does UTG have AA? If UTG has AA, your problem here is not trying to manipulate the pot to try to get gutshots to make bad calls. Your problem is to try to minimize what UTG is charging you to draw to your 2 outer. On the other hand, if UTG does not have AA, then you have a significant equity advantage. By not raising the flop, you are now going to pay more on the turn if UTG has AA and none of the other draws make it.

[KitCloudkicker]

[ QUOTE ]
By not raising the flop, you are now going to pay more on the turn if UTG has AA and none of the other draws make it.

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont understand this at all.

you mean, if i call the flop and raise the turn, i am paying more to draw? how so? if he 3 bets the turn i'm not calling, and if i think theres a good chance he's got AA i'm not betting the river if he checks.

on the other hand, if i raise the flop and he 3 bets, i cant fold (as he would probably do this with any overpair, not just AA) unless theres heavy action behind me on a later street - so it turns out that that line costs more money than a turn raise.

the plan that i devised for this hand was what i thought was the cheapest way to get to showdown but one that still protected my hand.

quite a long time ago, a hand was posted here where the Hero held KQ and was facing a bet from a rock on k-high board. the pot was limped preflop with several people to act behind him. here, the correct play was to raise the flop , bet the turn and check the river, thereby protecting
our hand vs the field and not paying off the rock when he has a better hand. here i felt the same concept applied, but because i felt a flop raise would not offer much in the way of protection, i opted to wait until the turn.

re: the argument about giving odds to PP's calling one bet - heres why i disagree. what are the odds of the 3 people behind me even holding PP's? the odds that you'll get dealt a PP to start with are only 6.5%. thus its unlikely that even one of them has a PP, and if one does, he's still only 22:1 to hit on the turn. its much more likely that folks have random connected cards/draws/two-pair draws imo.

[gobbledygeek]

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the plan that i devised for this hand was what i thought was the cheapest way to get to showdown but one that still protected my hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Putting UTG on only AA (and thus affecting how you play this hand, i.e. cheap showdown) is weak, imo. And I wear real purty skirts.

[ QUOTE ]

re: the argument about giving odds to PP's calling one bet - heres why i disagree. what are the odds of the 3 people behind me even holding PP's? the odds that you'll get dealt a PP to start with are only 6.5%. thus its unlikely that even one of them has a PP, and if one does, he's still only 22:1 to hit on the turn. its much more likely that folks have random connected cards/draws/two-pair draws imo.


[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough, but pocket pairs are now probably slightly more likely to appear behind you due to the coldcalling of your preflop raise. But backdoor straight and flush draws are usually also coming along in a pot this big; add one or two of those plus one pocket pair and you've got a gaggle of idiots to charge.

[mikeca]

[ QUOTE ]
i dont understand this at all.you mean, if i call the flop and raise the turn, i am paying more to draw? how so? if he 3 bets the turn i'm not calling, and if i think theres a good chance he's got AA i'm not betting the river if he checks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would he 3 bet the turn with QQ or JJ? How about KK? You are certain enough that a turn 3 bet from UTG means AA, that you can fold your hand?

This is the problem I have with your line. I play at lower limits than you do, and I see erratic players that badly overplay their hands frequently. I could never trust my hand reading to tell the difference between AA and QQ in a pot this big. So I would raise the flop, cap it if UTG 3-bets, and then if UTG leads the turn, I’m calling one on the turn.

I paid 3BB. Your plan only played 2.5BB, but you didn’t see the river card and you didn’t give yourself another chance to draw out. You will only draw out on the river 1 in 22 times, but that seems to me to be worth the extra 0.5 BB in a pot this big. You also might occasionally get a free show down, if UTG does not have AA.