KK...a thought process in the heat of battle.

[JJH3984]

Raise the flop. The reality is that you rarely are going to be able to "price out" draws in this game. Raising now is good because you have an equity advantage. Here's the thing, when you think you're ahead you should raise. When you think you aren't, you should either call or fold. Note: having the best hand right now doesn't mean that you are "ahead".

[NoSetNoBet]

This is tough. In the live 4/8 - 6/12 that i play, the LRR from early position seems to always be AA. Still, people get retarded sometimes (often), and we have KK, so...

I like the call flop / raise turn line, I think. People often get aggressive both preflop and on the flop in these live games, but generally slow down the turn unless they have the goods. So we're likely to get raised and reraised on the flop and still not know where we stand, whereas we can comfortably fold when we're reraised on the turn. Also, we charge the draws much more with the turn raise than a flop raise, as was mentioned already.

But then again, its a big pot, and we have an equity edge with KK, so maybe that's all B.S. and we should just raise the flop.

[NinaWilliams]

[ QUOTE ]
My plan is to raise any turn card and take a free showdown from UTG if offered.

[/ QUOTE ].

This is the only big flaw in your thinking. I think you can vb the river here.

Waiting until the turn is perfectly fine given the size of the pot. Turn is a call if theres even a slim chance that he has 2 pair. Vs a range of set or straight then you have a fold

[gobbledygeek]

* grunch *

I raise the flop. I know all sorts of draws have the odds to continue but I believe 2 outers as well as backdoor straigh/flushes don't so I charge them as much as possible to see the turn. And if UTG 3bets and you cap I think you've just charged 3 and 4 outers more than they can afford. If you wait until the turn the pot is still going to be about 12.5:1, plus UTG bet/call and your raise, so draws will still be getting about 8:1; in a pot this large it might even be conceivable for gut shots to make this up? I have to re-read the section on SSHE on waiting to raise until the turn in big pots, but this pot is stupid huge; I'm guessing I make more money making near dead hands pay on the flop than "outplaying" my opponents. I could be very wrong on this.

What are you getting on the turn, 21:1 or something stupid like that? You don't think this is good enough to see the river, pair the board or spike your King and have your two pair / set be good enough of the time? I think I call the turn. The problem for me is when I whiff I'm then still getting tremendous odds to make a crying call with top pair; I guess I evaluate the river action and make a decision there.

I also hate the idea of taking a free showdown from UTG; I've seen enough live limp/raises to know that two suited cards is just as (or more?) likely as AA.

GcluelessnoobG

[One Outer]

[ QUOTE ]
I also hate the idea of taking a free showdown from UTG; I've seen enough live limp/raises to know that two suited cards is just as (or more?) likely as AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see suited broadways and connectors here at least as often as AA. But then again, it appears that all my anecdotal observations are wrong.

[jesse8888]

I raise the flop for two reasons:

1. He might not bet out on the turn for various reasons. Someone behind you might raise if you just call, freezing him up on the turn. Or even if it just goes one bet, he still might freeze up.

2. The pot will have 23 bets in it if you raise, and callers will be being offered 11.5:1. One type of draw does not have odds to call that; pocket pairs. Another type of draw is on the fence and might fold; lonely aces.

Those two factors make me raise the flop.

As for the turn....man it sucks to not be able to call that down, but you're NEVER good here.

[jesse8888]

[ QUOTE ]

I've seen enough live limp/raises to know that two suited cards is just as (or more?) likely as AA.

GcluelessnoobG

[/ QUOTE ]

In my game, limp/raises are only AA like 33% from unknown players.

[gobbledygeek]

I'm surprised by how many people think we can't catch up on the river. Couldn't 3bettor and coldcoldcaller just have 2 pair here enough of the time? Hero is raising/capping preflop, so even most retards will put Hero on a high pocket pair; villains now know that their two pair is good on turn and they can (and should) 3bet. Or am I giving typical villain too much credit here? Actually, a cold 3bet and call on the turn is pretty damn scary at my 2/4 table, but still...

[One Outer]

if the three bet folded everyone else I would consider it closer. the three cold behind seals the deal for me.

[NinaWilliams]

[ QUOTE ]
if the three bet folded everyone else I would consider it close. the three cold behind seals the deal for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I missed that. Folding is fine I think.