JasonDanner owes me $500

[Keyser.]

Okay, I apologize to everyone that has to read this, because I realize it's quite lame, but whatever I want my money.

cliffsnotes: make a random prop bet at a table over the odds of our respective hands winning, we bet $500, I'm right obv, he doesn't pay.

I realize my chances are quite slim of getting money but I might as well try to humiliate him because welchers are annoying, and I would have paid him had I been wrong.

The hand in question:
Full Tilt Poker Game #4072909746: Table Anza (deep 6) - $0.75/$1.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:31:31 ET - 2007/11/04
Seat 1: Nocontrl9 ($303.75)
Seat 2: Keyser. ($304.70)
Seat 3: calicol75 ($225)
Seat 6: JasonDanner ($83.35)
Keyser. posts the small blind of $0.75
calicol75 posts the big blind of $1.50
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Keyser. [8d 8h]
JasonDanner raises to $5
Nocontrl9 folds
Keyser. calls $4.25
calicol75 folds
*** FLOP *** [7s 9c Jd]
Keyser. checks
JasonDanner bets $7
Keyser. raises to $299.70, and is all in
JasonDanner calls $71.35, and is all in
Keyser. shows [8d 8h]
JasonDanner shows [Td Qh]
Uncalled bet of $221.35 returned to Keyser.
*** TURN *** [7s 9c Jd] [Qd]
*** RIVER *** [7s 9c Jd Qd] [5s]
Keyser. shows a pair of Eights
JasonDanner shows a pair of Queens
JasonDanner wins the pot ($166.20) with a pair of Queens
Keyser.: kewl i had the best hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $168.20 | Rake $2
Board: [7s 9c Jd Qd 5s]
Seat 1: Nocontrl9 (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: Keyser. (small blind) showed [8d 8h] and lost with a pair of Eights
Seat 3: calicol75 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: JasonDanner showed [Td Qh] and won ($166.20) with a pair of Queens


The chat:

Keyser.: kewl i had the best hand
Dealer: Hand #4072915048
JasonDanner: did u
JasonDanner: we were even money just about
Keyser.: um, yes
Keyser.: see except for me having the best hand, u
would be correct
JasonDanner: i had 2 8s 3 10s 3 qs and 4 k
Keyser.: but you also had 80 at a deep table so i do
not think i trust you
JasonDanner: what is that 52-48
Keyser.: i was 65/35
JasonDanner: no u werent
Keyser.: look it up
JasonDanner: what hell math r u using
JasonDanner: dude the rules of 4 and 2
Keyser.: want to bet?
JasonDanner: outs times 4 on the flop
JasonDanner: yes
Keyser.: k lets bet 500
JasonDanner: ill be that im with +/- 5%
JasonDanner: ohk
Keyser.: that i can prove i was 65/35
JasonDanner: sounds good
Keyser.: u better not not pay
JasonDanner: i can prove its coin flip
JasonDanner: go to cardplayer
JasonDanner: and use the calculator
Keyser.: download pokerstove
Keyser.: i used pokerstove but surely cardplayer says
the same
JasonDanner: kno cardplayer is free go there and put it in
Keyser.: pokerstove is free too
Keyser.: k i did it
Keyser.: cardplayer confirms it, 65/35
JasonDanner: im doin it right now
Keyser.: do it yourself if you dont believe
JasonDanner: i am
Keyser.: 65.56 to 34.44
Keyser.: you better not cheat me
Nocontrl9: he's not going to pay you
JasonDanner: nah man i would pay you 500 if u werent an
#$%
Keyser.: want to buy out for another amount jason? ill
be reasonable
JasonDanner: but seeing as how you are and wouldn't let
me apologize and pay you
Dealer: JasonDanner has 15 seconds left to act
JasonDanner: im going to give me 500 play chips
JasonDanner: because you never specified real or play
money
Keyser.: lol, sorry man. i shouldnt have doubted you
at first that was wrong
Keyser.: but if you don't pay i actually will be upset,
but you can choose to now. ill take 250 in real USD and
we'll call it even
Keyser.: what'dya say jason?
JasonDanner: look it up
Keyser.: the odds?
JasonDanner: no what i said
Keyser.: you're not going to pay at all?
Keyser.: ok, transfer me $50 and we call it even. I
know some folks at FTP so i think i'll be able to get the
money, you should really consider it
Dealer: drush63 wins the pot ($79.25)
Dealer: Hand #4073085360
JasonDanner: its fine you can try
JasonDanner: i said before if u werent an @&$
Dealer: JasonDanner has 15 seconds left to act
JasonDanner: i would have
JasonDanner: now
JasonDanner: im givig
JasonDanner: you play chips
JasonDanner: because u never specified 500 what
Keyser.: ok, you'll prolly hear from me soon

*

Edit/MH: Locked owing to another thread being started.

[GSykes]

you didnt specify the denomination of chips so he is kind of right

[Keyser.]

eh, I mean that's true, but my intent is obvious.

[Al_Money]

I mean, I didn't read the whole thing, but seriously? You expect a random guy at a table to be honest about prop bets and what not? Idk, seems naive to me.

[Keyser.]

[ QUOTE ]
I mean, I didn't read the whole thing, but seriously? You expect a random guy at a table to be honest about prop bets and what not? Idk, seems naive to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

of course, but I'm still posting it b/c I have nothing to lose and maybe he'll be slightly embarrassed or something.

[Annulus]

with all due respect you are the idiot here, not him.

[Keyser.]

you can't just say "with all due respect" and then say something really mean after. :-)

[a nonymous]

I'd say there is less than a 1 in a 1000 chance of him paying you, even if he sees this and is "embarrassed or something."

[Keyser.]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say there is less than a 1 in a 1000 chance of him paying you, even if he sees this and is "embarrassed or something."

[/ QUOTE ]

i.e. posting is +EV. fwiw the odds are probably 1 in 10,000

[a nonymous]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd say there is less than a 1 in a 1000 chance of him paying you, even if he sees this and is "embarrassed or something."

[/ QUOTE ]

i.e. posting is +EV. fwiw the odds are probably 1 in 10,000

[/ QUOTE ]
It took you time and energy to post.

Let's spend some more time/energy to figure out the actual EV, using your 1 in 10,000 figure.