25nl - 2 pair vs river push from a lagtard

[wildzer0]

Villain is 60/13/3 over 45 hands

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $4.50
Hero (BB): $30.30
UTG: $35.45
MP: $16.75
CO: $27.00
BTN: $22.45

Preflop: Hero is dealt 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG calls $0.25, MP folds, CO calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.85) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $0.75</font>, UTG calls $0.75, CO calls $0.75

Turn: ($3.10) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $2.50</font>, UTG calls $2.50, CO folds

River: ($8.10) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $6.00</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises all-in to $31.95</font>, Hero

[wildzer0]

And while I'm thinking about a general subject - What are your general thoughts on massive overbets like this on the river from laggy players? Do you consider it likely to be the nuts (or close to it) absent a specific read or do you tend to give them a little less credit?

[bozzer]

muck for me. you're getting about $22-$30 so you've have to be pretty confident he's bluffing. there's only the flush draw that's really missed and you've been betting pretty strong.

the board is a little bit nasty but not terrible. it is possible he's valuebetting a worse 2 pair.

also his aggression isn't out of line.

[Nuprin]

I think it depends (the huge overbets). I need to see them bluff more than once before I look them up, no matter how laggy they are. I feel like a lot of the laggy players are successful in the short-term (and I lose money to them in the short-term) because they make these bets that look crazy and they really are 2 pr or higher almost every time, even if it seems impossible that they played something like 84o and hit the gutshot. I tend to give the short-stack players a lot less credit than the laggy ones.

[bkar824]

You're way less than 2:1 here on the river, which is the bare minimum I think you can call here with. I think you're up against a set of 2's or 6's or even 7's. Not much else this guy can be holding other than a really intense attempt at salvaging a broken flush draw. I doubt that is the case though, because with such a benign river (from his point of view) there really isn't anything to try to represent by a bluff. I think you're beat, and the odds are terrible on the river to find out. Good place to curse a lot and muck.

[wildzer0]

[ QUOTE ]
Good place to curse a lot and muck.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I did too much cursing, not enough folding.I have the same tendency I see in a lot of TAGS where if I line doesn't make sense from villain I just get all my chips in.

[HBomb]

I think this might be an easy call..

BTW, aren't you a $100 NL regular? Maybe cashout alot or having a bad run trying to get your foundation back to where it once was? Oh well, good luck either way. But do you think it's possible maybe he has a worse 2 pair like say maybe 64 or 67 that he called on the flop with?

[wildzer0]

Yeah, I'm a 100nl regular but recent cashouts have left me only sort of rolled for it (more like comfortably rolled for 50nl) and recent confidence issues have got me playing 25nl for a week or so

[skiller3]

I probably fold here. I feel like this is a scenario where calling with J6 (two-pair) would be about the same as calling with AJ (TPTK). This looks like either a bluff with weak holdings or a set, I don't expect many hands of intermediate value.

The guy is loose preflop but his aggression stat isn't that insane.

[wildzer0]

Isn't his aggression stat pretty insane for a VPIP of 60%