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#31
07-31-2006, 05:20 PM
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Re: Adjusting to Perennial Cold-Callers
If there is poker in heaven, this is how I would imagine the games would be like.
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#32
07-31-2006, 08:56 PM
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Re: Adjusting to Perennial Cold-Callers
[ QUOTE ]
I've read SSH, and there are aspects of Miller's recommendations that I don't like. For example, he recommends limping in with small pocket pairs and small suited aces in early and middle position. All too often when I do this I face a raise after me, and wind up paying too much to see a flop out of position with a hand that needs the flop to hit it hard in order to continue. Five-way action just isn't good enough to justify paying two bets to see a flop with a small pair. (Yes, I know this doesn't directly address the cold-calling issue.) [/ QUOTE ] How many players do you think justify? It is almost correct to raise with this kind of hand in late postion. As for these kinds of hands, they are incredibly easy to play after the flop, whether you are in or out of postion.
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#33
07-31-2006, 09:05 PM
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Re: Adjusting to Perennial Cold-Callers
The key this game is equity and showdown value. This includes all pocket pairs and suited broadway. Jamming the flop with monster hands and draws is key to blowing this game apart.
Also, any time you see a bunch of cold-calling, esp with JTo, you are looking at a losing player. I think that you would see these players all the time at your casino if they were truly beating a middle limit play, in other words they would quit there job and post here.
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#34
08-23-2006, 06:29 PM
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Re: Adjusting to Perennial Cold-Callers
[ QUOTE ]
Finally, the 26 samples doesn't mean much to me. There's so much going on (rainbow boards vs twotone, how many times the flush card hits, how many times the straight draw hits, etc.) that intuition tells me it would take a hundred trials to get within 10%. Where does the +/- 8% come from? [/ QUOTE ] The +/- 8% comes from sampling theory using binomial statistics. 26 samples total, 21 hits, five misses. Standard error is sqrt(26 *21/26 * 5/26) = 2.01 hits. The best estimate of hit rate is then 21/26 +/- 2.01/26 = 0.807 +/- 0.077.
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#35
08-25-2006, 09:44 AM
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Re: Adjusting to Perennial Cold-Callers
[ QUOTE ]
The +/- 8% comes from sampling theory using binomial statistics [/ QUOTE ] Thanks. I'm embarrassed to say I wasn't aware of the Central Limit Theorem, until a friend of mine brought it up to refute a similar point of mine in a winrate discussion. I really need to take a probability class in a real department. I've never seen it brought up on twoplustwo though, where were you back when we were talking about winrates? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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