Live Flop Play: How Many Bets?

[Ricks]

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okay. time for more info. an hour or so earlier villain limps in EP, callers to me, i raise AK, flop top pair on an A63 two toned board and villain calls me down with JJ. he didn't raise pf. does that change anyone's analysis? i mean, it should actually shrink his range; still, he's putting in all this action for some reason...

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Interesting. Probably makes a set less likely, and a monster pocket pair or the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]/Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] more likely. I think this makes one more reraise from us slightly better. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Doesn't change my action much, I still think he usually has a set here.

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also fwiw, he never has a bigger flush draw here. AK and AQ are drawing hands to him. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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That pretty much leaves him with AA,KK, or maybe QQ. This gives you an equity advantage of a few % points. If he has the A,K or Q of clubs in his hand your equity advantage is really tiny. I am all for getting the money in with the most equity but at some point you will have to wonder if he has a set. Just because he limped JJ once doesn't mean he will always limp his big pairs.

Your likely equity advantage is small and it will change dramatically for the worse if you do not get a good turn card. Another bet might get you a free turn card and I would take it. If he 7-bets, I am beginning to worry about a set which would put you at a 60/40 equity disadvantage.

[shane88888]

Board: Tc 3c 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.485% 48.48% 00.00% 480 0.00 { Jc9c }
Hand 1: 51.515% 51.52% 00.00% 510 0.00 { QdQh }


We're behind QQ even without a club.

[shane88888]

Though I doubt this is in his range, I thought this is interesting:

Board: Tc 3c 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.840% 33.84% 00.00% 9846115 0.00 { Jc9c }
Hand 1: 66.160% 66.16% 00.00% 19250093 0.00 { AcKc }

[Ricks]

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Board: Tc 3c 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.485% 48.48% 00.00% 480 0.00 { Jc9c }
Hand 1: 51.515% 51.52% 00.00% 510 0.00 { QdQh }


We're behind QQ even without a club.

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Yes. I should have run them individually. I see now that QQ is two less outs for James' str8.

Ah, I just noticed that you previously ran these. I need to pay more attention.

Edit: added last comment

[James.]

10/20 live

everyone is horrible. they also think i'm a crazy LAG. villain is tight/semi-passive. he's sort of pissed at me because i've been raising his blind alot(not stealing, just good starting hands).

villain raises in EP, 2 coldcallers, i call on the button with J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], sb calls, bb calls.

Flop(12sb): T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

villain leads, 2 calls, i raise, sb and bb drop, villain 3bets, 2 folds, i 4bet, villain 5 bets, i 6 bet planning on just calling 7, villain only calls.

Turn(13bb): 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

check, check.

River(13bb): 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

bet, i raise.

thoughts? call a 3bet or is this an easy fold?

[Ricks]

Ahh, I thought the hand was over and didn't realize that you had another decision.

You can't fold to a 3-bet because he will too often think his big pair is good here. Sometimes he makes the mistake of not betting the turn and shows up with the boat but not often enough IMO.

[ProfessorBen]

I fold to a 3-bet with a read. I call the 3-bet without.

[KitCloudkicker]

raise. call 3.

[Allday Everyday]

I think checking through the turn and taking the free river card is good obv.

By his flop play, I think he has a set at the flop and a fullhouse at the river much more often than not. So I think the river raise is bad. I would call the river bet with our trips.

Given that you raised the river, if he reraises, with the pot size we only have to be good one time in like 18 for the call to be profitable. I think we should make a crying call. I think it's profitable, especially given your read on him as not always raising solid/good pocket pairs from early.

[James.]

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So I think the river raise is bad. I would call the river bet with our trips.

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it's technically bad if we can't fold to a 3bet. since i planned to, and the flop action is TT, AA, or KK i still have value, IMO. this is especially true given my image. i see what you're saying, but i really felt my hand was best far too often to not put 2BB in on the river.