#11
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Re: Noob Hockey Question
Just to humour myself, I fooled around with my spreadsheet from last years season
2006-2007 When the favourite wins, 42.9% of the time it's by 1 goal. |
#12
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Re: Noob Hockey Question
[ QUOTE ]
Just to humour myself, I fooled around with my spreadsheet from last years season 2006-2007 When the favourite wins, 42.9% of the time it's by 1 goal. [/ QUOTE ] How often did the favorite win by 1 goal though (you need to account for how often the dog won). |
#13
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Re: Noob Hockey Question
[quote
How often did the favorite win by 1 goal though (you need to account for how often the dog won). [/ QUOTE ] Depends on the moneyline for that fav but obviously it is going to be greater than 21.45% of the time. |
#14
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Re: Noob Hockey Question
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Just to humour myself, I fooled around with my spreadsheet from last years season 2006-2007 When the favourite wins, 42.9% of the time it's by 1 goal. [/ QUOTE ] How often did the favorite win by 1 goal though (you need to account for how often the dog won). [/ QUOTE ] Ok, filtered it again. Faves: 737-492 = 60.0% faves win by 1 goal 313 times = 42.5% of the time * 60% of time = 25.4% of all games the fave wins by 1 goal The handful of -105/-105 games that were on are going to change these #'s slightly, but I don't feel like dicking around with more IF statements in excel after getting pwnd on wong teasers today [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] |
#15
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Re: Noob Hockey Question
As Crockpot said on a thread earlier this weekend, combining 2 -EV bets does not make a +EV one. Blindly betting the dog ML and -1.5 is a great way to go broke.
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