How hard did he hit? AQs

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
passive and really tight on the flop, then the surviving hands LAG it up somewhat on the big streets. HU to the river for 8.5 BB.

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Given this description, his river check-raising hand range should be dominated by A9. 3-bet.

Note that a more passive player could show you Ax of clubs, but a player who likes to lag it up on the turn would surely raise top pair + flush draw.

There are 6 combinations of A9 out. AKc and A5c are both out, due to the lack of preflop raise and turn raise. A3c and A4c would be virtual locks for a raise from this kind of player, given top pair + flush + gutshot straight draw.

That leaves only A6c, A7c, A8c, ATc, and AJc. Since we are discounting these due to the laggy nature of our opponent, but can't discount A9 at all, I think you should 3-bet.

It's close enough though that just calling is not a big mistake.

good luck.
Eric


-Eric

[StellarWind]

elindauer,

I don't fully agree with the way you are interpreting the read I gave.

[ QUOTE ]
then the surviving hands LAG it up somewhat on the big streets.

[/ QUOTE ]
The word "somewhat" is an important modifier here. He's not that aggressive.

The other issue is he's a fairly weak player who can't be relied on to properly evaluate hands. Just because he's tight in general on the flop doesn't mean he is going to find this particular fold with 99. It's typical of weak players not to appreciate the danger in this situation. Nor can you precisely say he would always raise the turn with XYZ but never with ABC. That's giving him too much credit for knowing what he is doing.

[manylevels]

I agree we should not 3bet for the reasons already stated and given that u loose 99,9% when capped but you wont fold anyway u dont have enough equity to 3bet, simple as that.