RTR 10K Freeroll - AK on bubble

[evagaba]

Ultimate Bet, $10k RTR Freeroll NL Hold'em Tournament, 150/300 Blinds, 10 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

This is the Rake the Rake $10K Freeroll today UB. There are 57 players left. Top 50 get paid with bottom payout being $40. Payouts go something like...

$40 / 50-41
$45 / 40-31
$50 / 30-25
$55 / 24-20 etc....

with 1st being $2500 and 2nd being $1500.

Here is what scares me. Villian is a solid 18/18/4 over 272 hand and is UTG+1. I have seen him show down 3 hands and they were all pocket pairs. I was on the phone with a friend at the time and he suggested I just call and see a flop. I really am kinda lost at what to do here. I do not want to throw $40 free dollars away.

CO: 6,040
BTN: 2,550
SB: 8,165
BB: 4,880
UTG: 2,350
UTG+1: 7,620
MP: 2,620
MP+1: 2,310
MP+2: 7,605
Hero: 4,595

Pre-Flop: (450) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero
1 fold, <font color="red">UTG+1 bets 1050</font>, 3 Folds, HERO?

[jonnyd]

i feel like a pot raise preflop is usually weaker than a weak raise from EP but you'll run into all types of people

have they usually been raising the pot pre?

i like a shove here though

[chrismystero]

Easy shove...

"call and see a flop" is just so wrong.

[JesseB_11]

shove all day

[evagaba]

Could someone please explain WHY this is a shove instead of just saying it is a shove.

The amatuer in me says to fold a drawing hand here.

1) Villian has solid stats and has only shown down pocket pairs. Plus his raise is UTG+1.

2) If I do shove, I have no fold equity and villian will call ALWAYS.

3) If 1 and 2 are right, I will lose 56% of the time and be elimated 6 from the cash.

4) If I do spike an A or K and win the hand, it is only worth another $5-10 to me. Why would I risk $40 to gain an extra $5-10.

Not saying I am right...I would just like to know why a shove it right here. Thanks.

[tomek322]

I think the concensus answer you will get on here is... AK is +EV versus his range, this is the bubble so he can be raising a wide range, and we are playing to win.

That said, if cashing is important to you, why even call to see the flop? Just muck and save your chips for when the bubble burst.

[tomek322]

"I have seen him show down 3 hands and they were all pocket pairs." seems to have gotten in your head. Just because he is showing down PP, doesn't mean his only raising hands are PP. Further, you need to take note if he has been getting aggressive near the bubble.

Saying that doubling up will ony get you another $10 seems wrong. If the stacks at your table are indicative of the stacks in the rest of the tourney. It looks like if you double up, you will instantly outlast 1/2 field that will bust ten minutes after the bubble. IMO that is huge.

[TheFoxNL]

shove and see 5 cards or even make him fold

[evagaba]

I didn't say I "just called" but that it was suggested to me. I never mentioned my actual move.

Thanks for the replies. I appreciate it.

[levAA]

1.) You never can set any villain on a range only including PP. According to his playing style there will be AK, AQ and maybe also smaller Aces, KQ in his range.

2.) You have FE here, specially as it is bubble play. You might not have much FE but if you have only 10% it counts.

3.) Look at your possible options:

- folding - no need to discuss that
- calling - calling nearly 1/4 of your stack and missing the flop 1/3 of the time is bad.
- so your only option is raising - and with these stack sizes the bet-size has to be a push.