Would You Try It? Live Shenanigans (long rambling post)

[mikech]

[ QUOTE ]
cero, definitely shove. he's leaving, you think he wants to explain to his friends/girlfriend/whoever that he was up huge and then lost it all on the last hand? or want to deal with it himself? he'll see the board, look down at his stack and still see enough money behind where he can walk away a "winner", and fold (and i don't think he'll be that reluctant, either).

[/ QUOTE ]
i think this is very optimistic. i played a hand with a very similar context a few months ago: it was a 2-5 1k max-buy game at the venetian, a kid had his 2k in chips all racked up and was even standing up already. i told him to straddle so he could be sure to play his last hand, but he wouldn't, and said, "i'm only playing AA." he got dealt his hand, bent down to look at it, raised to 40 bucks and sat back down. "so you really got aces!", several ppl at the table chimed in.

i had 76s and called, and told him flat-out, "i've got a nutcracker, i'm gonna snap you off." another player also called, and the flop came something like 7 3 2.

utg kid overbet the pot, like $150, and again i told him, "i'm gonna make a loose call here just so i can bust you."

turn was another 7. kid checked, i bet $500, he thought for a while and called. river's like a 9 or something, he checked again, i shoved for like $1300, whatever he had left (i had him covered), and after tanking again he put his chips in with, indeed, AA.

moral of the story: ppl don't like to fold aces. also, ppl don't like to fold sets. also, ppl don't like to fold sets of aces.

[stephenNUTS]

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nuts: The title says "long rambling post." If you don't like it, don't click.

Cero: Do you think shoving is better than raising 3,000?

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Sorry Matt!

[TheWorstPlayer]

different hand. i agree with you about the 'moral', but in your hand you were goading him the whole time, his line was a bluff inducing line, and the board was not scary. in OP's hand, there is no trash talking going on, his line is designed to AVOID bluffs not to induce them, and the flush just hit on the river. totally different. I would never bluff in your hand, but I'd definitely do it in the OP's.

[mikech]

another hand that relates to this 3-barreling business. this one was from the bellagio 10-20 two nights ago. keep in mind that i'd been playing tight solid poker all night, not once getting out of line. anyhow, there was an open-raise to $100 from early position, next guy called, button called, and i made it $500 to go from the bb (i started the hand with $5100.) original raiser folded, next guy called, button folded.

hu to the flop: 9 7 5 rainbow. i bet $700, he called.

turn Q. i bet $1500, he called.

river 2. i shoved my last $2400. he called with JJ. i happened to have 72o and sucked out hardcore (true story), but what legitimate hand could he beat there on the river? nothing but a bluff, but he called anyway. my point being, ppl are willing to look up even that 3rd barrel much lighter and more often than you all seem to think.

[Lefort]

Is it entirely impossible that villain has the nut flush? I think A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] looks pretty consistent with his line as well..

But assuming you're right and that he would overbet the river with the nuts, I would think this is almost entirely image-dependent... it not only matters whether villain is capable of laying down the hand, but also whether he is capable of laying it down against you. If you've been playing laggy and betting alot, fish always suspect you're "up to something" and talk themselves into calls which is why I (for the most part) stick with your philosophy of not firing a whole lot of 2nd/3rd barrels playing live.

[JaBlue]

Lefort, the guy woulda open shoved with the nuts

[phantom_lord]

"Better Than U", you're such a [censored] moron.

[padirk165]

Cero,
It was good seeing you out in vegas. In this particular hand i do think that a river push would work enough to make it +EV as you descibed the villian. Another thing to consider here is that the 5-10 game is capped buy of 1k so if you do make this play and get called you will lose a lot of potential value in later hands. So if there is another big stacked donk at the table or people that you can push around with 4K that you wouldnt be able to with 1k it becomes a more difficult calculation. I think a shove would def be more fun since you can show the guy the bluff on his way out the door and he can think about that the hole way back to STL.

[LAgambol]

if he had a set of aces, there would be no way he would fold this, even for the over push, every live player has heard this before "I guess I'll pay you off" and get your push snapped off

[Rootabager]

Live players fear flushes more than anything. I also think the older someone is the more likely they fear flushes. Just from personal experience I dont if everyone has gotten that impression.