Break a Q low vs opponent drawing 2 on final draw?

[berserk]

Pot is HU from the start, capped preflop. I'm on button starting with a smooth 1 card draw to a 76.

He draws 2 in the first 2 rounds, I draw 1 and miss both times. After 2 draws, he checks to me. I bet with a q-7 low. He calls and draws 2 more.

The question is, if he's drawing 2 cards, do i break my Q low for a smooth 76 draw? Or am i standing pat here

[MarkGritter]

Breaking the Q is generally better with a smooth draw. You can get an exact answer using the poker odds calculator at twodimes.net/poker, which has a 2-7 lowball mode.

I gave you 7632Q with K and J dead, and the opponent 237 (his best 2-card draw.) Drawing one gives you 0.639 equity, standing pat gives you 0.631.

A rougher draw like 8635 is 0.622 against the 2-card 732, but Q8653 is 0.679 to win. But assuming there is more money to go in yet, drawing is probably preferable.

I generally don't stand pat in this situation with less than a J. If the pot is unusually small for some reason you should be more willing to break and get something you can bet at the end.

Similarly, although a J is a favorite on the last draw over a 1-card draw, a smooth draw will often have comparable odds--- standing pat with J7432 is almost always a mistake. (Unless you can successfully semisnow and get T's and 9's to fold.)